From one crisis to another. While the fifth wave of Covid-19 had once raised fears of a presidential campaign constrained by health restrictions, it is now the war in Ukraine which is crashing into French political life. For 10 days and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia on February 24, this news has dominated all the others, from the Agricultural Show to the latest alarming report from the IPCC. To the point that the faces of Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky have become more familiar to the French than those of the candidates vying for this capital election, the first round of which takes place in 35 days, on April 10.
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The conflict has relegated the presidential sequence, however extremely awaited, to the background. “We don’t have a campaign”even lamented Valérie Pécresse, the LR candidate, Wednesday on France 5. And while “The worse is yet to come” in this crisis, according to the President of the Republic, nothing says that the geopolitical situation can allow the debates to emerge in public opinion as the deadline, crucial, approaches.
In the meantime, for the past two weeks, all the campaigns have been adjusting, first on form. Here, Marine Le Pen and France 2 agree to postpone the program “Elysée 2022” devoted to the RN candidate and initially scheduled for February 24, the day of the Russian invasion, by one week. There, Yannick Jadot cancels his participation in the Forum of Possibilities scheduled in Clermont-Ferrand (Puy-de-Dôme) the day after the outbreak of war, Friday, February 25. “We arrange our meetings by adapting them to the context”explains Marine Tondelier, spokesperson for the environmentalist candidate.
Public meetings are changing in nature, too. This is what Anne Hidalgo decided, by transforming a classic meeting planned in Bordeaux (Gironde), Saturday February 26, into an event of support for the Ukrainian people. Jean-Luc Mélenchon does nothing else with his “meeting for peace”, in Lyon, Sunday March 6.
One month before the first round, everyone is trying to adapt to this new international situation, with one objective: to find the right tone so as not to appear too out of step with current events, but without letting precious campaign days slip away. The voices are more serious and each word is weighed, as if the war in Ukraine had cast a veil over the usual intensity of a presidential campaign. “Everyone must raise the level of moral standards in relation to the election”assures Anne Hidalgo to franceinfo. “We can criticize, but without adding to it”abounds Eric Coquerel, deputy La France insoumise of Seine-Saint-Denis and lieutenant of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
“The moment does not invite sacred union, but more restraint.”
Eric Coquerel, LFI deputy for Seine-Saint-Denisat franceinfo
The controversies between the candidates have not disappeared, however. They simply moved on the international field, like the violent charge of Anne Hidalgo against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Monday. In The Expressthe PS candidate accused her rival of La France insoumise of being “became the ally and support of Vladimir Putin”. “These are defamatory remarks”, replies the entourage of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. On the left, the Ukrainian question has brought to light clear fractures in diplomatic matters. This is also the case on the right and on the far right: for ten days, Valérie Pécresse has not stopped attacking Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour about their links with Vladimir Poutine.
One candidate, however, escapes the frontal attacks of his rivals in this case: Emmanuel Macron. The Head of State, who formalized his candidacy for a second term on Thursday evening, was expected at the turn by all of his competitors, after a winter marked by the Omicron wave of Covid-19. The war in Ukraine has forced its opponents to put aside their harshest criticisms. In foreign policy, “there is no need to attack Emmanuel Macron”evacuates Anne Hidalgo, “in phase with the decisions” taken against Moscow. After qualifying the Head of State as “monarchic and dictator”Friday, the former president of the Republicans, Laurent Wauquiez, has “took of” this term, “not adapted” in the actual context.
If they spare him sometimes, all the opponents of Emmanuel Macron fear in any case a bonus for the warlord under these conditions. “He is factually the only one with the competence on this subject at the moment, so it is a virtuous spiral for the power in place”, analyzes political scientist and sociologist Virginie Martin. Senator Les Républicains Bruno Retailleau says he fears, with the Monde (paying article), “a legitimist reflex of the ‘rally around the flag effect’, ‘rallying to the flag'”.
This concept, theorized in the United States by political scientist John Mueller in the 1970s, puts forward the idea of increased support, in times of war or major crisis, for the power in place. The outbreak of the Covid-19 crisis in March 2020 had thus led to a marked increase in the popularity of the Chief Executive. Two years later, for the Ukrainian crisis, the oppositions are watching for the loss of momentum, which appeared in the polls in mid-February. “At first, during a crisis, it strengthens the president a little… as long as the decisions seem to be the right ones. Afterwards, it fades”hopes Eric Coquerel.
The war in Ukraine has another consequence on the campaign of the outgoing president: in the running for his own succession, he has not yet put forward a detailed program, or even concrete measures. While a controversy had emerged over the absence of candidate Macron’s program two months before the first round of the election, in 2017, the outgoing president’s project is not really at the center of discussions this year. “Five years ago, the program was a stake for its credibility, but it will not be important this year”sweeps a campaign strategist.
“Emmanuel Macron will be judged less on his program than on his incarnation.”
A member of his campaign teamat franceinfo
Without a real project five weeks from the deadline, how will the head of state invest in this particular campaign? His entourage has repeatedly explained that he does not plan to participate in the debates preceding the election. “It is likely that he settles in this ease of not debating”fears a relative of Anne Hidalgo. “Two weeks ago, we thought we had a candidate-president who was mainly a candidate. Now, with the campaign crushed, Emmanuel Macron will be mainly president. He will only be able to use small gaps for his re-election”justifies a majority framework.
These interstices may even turn out to be non-existent. “None of the French would understand that the army chief is not focusing exclusively on this crisis”, advanced Bruno Le Maire on franceinfo, Tuesday, suggesting a campaign reduced to a minimum. For now, according to The Parisiana meeting of candidate Macron initially scheduled for Saturday in Marseille has been postponed by a week, to March 12.
A favorite president but intermittent candidate, exchanges engulfed by the war in Ukraine… “If there is no debate, assessment, project and the president is re-elected, then it will be in a form of democratic omission with a risk of legitimacy during the mandate”warned Monday on Europe 1 the President of the Senate, Gérard Larcher, whose fears are shared by other candidates.
“If the choice of the French is not made consciously, we will have to pay the price afterwards.”
Anne Hidalgoat franceinfo
For her part, political scientist Virginie Martin anticipates a re-emergence of protest movements, like the “yellow vests” in the fall of 2018. “While the elected officials are already very poorly elected, if the campaign is confiscated it could ignite the embers of the frustration of the oppositions”, judges the specialist. For her, the current climate of the countryside could lead many people not to go to the polls in April.
Is abstention the major risk of a campaign that has never really started? “We have never seen French people lose interest in a presidential election, which remains an exceptional meeting”wants to believe the former prefect Gilbert Payet, adviser to Eric Zemmour. “For the vast majority of people, whatever we say, the questions of the end of the month, security or civilization will inevitably find their place” in the coming weeks.
No matter if this may look like a form of Coué method, the challenge is also not to let the war in Ukraine dictate the pace of French political life. “It would be paradoxical and dangerous to put our democracy on hold”, warns Eric Coquerel. Despite a more than uncertain situation in Ukraine, all the teams involved in the race for the Elysee Palace exclude, for the moment, the possibility of a postponement of the ballot.