Invading a country is one thing. Occupying it is another. Remember the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. On the orders of Leonid Brezhnev, the Russian army invaded Afghanistan in 1979. After ten years, unable to control the country subjected to internal guerrilla warfare, the Russian armies turned back. Humiliation. In addition to weakening the economy of the USSR, this war had cost the lives of thousands of young men and fueled the resentment of Russian families who had seen their children return home bruised, seriously injured or simply in ” body bags “. Many analysts now see this failure as one of the wicks that helped ignite the revolt of the citizens of the Soviet Empire against the communist dictatorship that led to the demise of the USSR.
As a journalist for Radio-Canada, from 1986 to 1991, I was able to bear witness to the hopes and anxieties of “liberated” populations. Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, former East Germany, from Budapest to Samarkand, we welcomed the opening of borders. We wanted to preserve our identity while hoping to access the way of life of other citizens of democratic Europe.
Many of us are furious at our inability to physically stop the advance of the Russian tanks. Instead of bombing them, at the risk of triggering a war in defiance of the international laws we adopted after the 39-45 war, the democratic countries launched an economic war to weaken Russia’s financial sources.
By now it seems obvious to me that Vladimir Putin will repeat Brezhnev’s mistake. Unless one of his generals stops him, he will occupy the Ukraine. Subsequently, the Ukrainian people, supported by their European neighbors, will launch an insurrection, a civil war which is likely to last a few years. Suffocated by the punitive economic measures inflicted by many democratic countries, Russia’s economy will not be able to sustain the occupation of Ukraine for long. From within, the anger of the Russian people cannot be stifled as easily as the dictator believes. Russia’s wealthy elites will want to reclaim their westernized way of life. Putin will be asked to step aside.
However, on the way to his internal exile, he would have to be prevented from pressing the button that would trigger a nuclear attack.