First, salute the extraordinary courage and motivation of the Ukrainians in the face of the storm of fire and hatred that has fallen on their heads since Thursday morning.
The tenacity, too, of this Volodymyr Zelensky, the actor who became president, who had been taken for a joke and an amateur… but who turns out to be serious, methodical and tenacious in adversity. A real revelation for Ukrainians and the world. Tomorrow, a martyr?
Arms in hand, young and old declare: “I want to stay to defend my nation under attack. I have to fight, otherwise my country will disappear. This is an attitude that is rare enough and opposed to the spirit of the times (individualist and anti-nationalist) to be underlined. Would it be, even theoretically, possible here in Quebec?
Vladimir Putin hoped for a blitzkrieg which would have broken all resistance in 24 or 48 hours, and resulted on Friday evening in a white flag flying over the Mariinsky palace in the capital. It missed.
The Russian President claimed with his attack to defeat evil NATO (“imperialist encirclement”) and the “historical absurdity” of a “supposed” Ukrainian nation with an independent state. To roll them back or — in the case of this uncertain nation — to deny it and wipe it off the map altogether.
Today, at least in the short and medium term, he gets exactly the opposite result.
An Atlantic Alliance which for years had been looking for itself, no longer knowing what it was for, which had failed in its exotic initiatives (Afghanistan), has suddenly found a purpose in life. “Vladimir Putin has done a lot to strengthen NATO unity. (Jens Stoltenberg, general secretary of the organization)
Without prejudging the future cohesion of Europe as a place of democracy and freedom — which remains a huge question mark in the 21and century — we must say that the spectacle of the last days, from this point of view, allows us to keep hope.
Without officially declaring war on the aggressor state — this is the particularity of the situation, with a Ukraine that is not a member of NATO, which is excluded from going to defend directly, arms in hand — we try to invent a suitable way of expressing and translating into action resolute solidarity and support.
There is already the reception of hundreds of thousands of refugees (mainly women, children and the elderly) at the borders of Poland, Romania and Hungary. (Countries that we have already seen, by the way, less generous in front of other refugees – but that is not the point.)
Economic pressure is being organised, with an unexpected scale and coordination: economic embargo, cessation of a large part of banking transactions, suspension of air links, of a Russia-Germany gas pipeline, etc.
The objective is not only punitive: it is to induce an economic crisis in Russia which could shake the regime. The government’s large foreign exchange reserves (hundreds of billions of dollars), and the possible economic support of China (a lukewarm ally), will no doubt enable Moscow to soften the shock.
But if Russian financial agents can no longer intervene in the markets (which is taking shape), if the ruble collapses (which has started) and if prices soar, then the Russian regime will enter, internally , in a possible danger zone.
Already, astonishingly large anti-war demonstrations have taken place in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, and more. They remind us that Russia is not just Vladimir Putin.
There seems to have been, this weekend in Europe, a sort of awakening, of awareness, in civil society with major demonstrations in Paris, Berlin, Milan, Barcelona, where the idea was clearly expressed “Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom and ours.”
A similar movement is taking shape at the level of governments. We should note the spectacular reversal underway in Berlin, in the face of the incredible threats of a Putin who is now explicitly resorting to nuclear blackmail. Putin who this week confounded skeptics and showed the world that his threats should be taken seriously.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has just announced a very significant increase in defense budgets in Berlin, essentially arguing that pacifism (very strong in Germany) and faith in the “American umbrella” to get the job done… are no longer season. Even Germany is now joining the movement of military aid to the fighters of Ukraine.
To the Ukrainians who today are resisting a Russian army four times greater in number (some 800,000 permanent personnel in total, against 200,000), perhaps ten times greater in resources, who has decided to crush them… can we in all conscience answer: “Sorry, I am against war, I cannot give you arms…”? Or again: “You had better surrender, to avoid further bloodshed. Can we say that?
There are situations where pacifism leads to a complete moral impasse. Nazar, a 29-year-old enlisted youth, told Release “I don’t want to kill, even a Russian soldier. But if necessary, I will not hesitate. »
No one knows what the outcome of this war will be. Do the talks announced yesterday on the Belarus-Ukraine border have a chance? Could Putin say to himself that all this is too badly started and that it is better to stop the costs?
On the contrary, is the military victory of Moscow, given the inequality of the forces involved, inevitable? What, subsequently, of the occupation and of a guerrilla which will organize itself and make life impossible for the occupiers? Is an east-west partition of the country conceivable? Or the extension of the war to other states in Europe…including in NATO? Paradoxically, if Putin got a quick victory in Ukraine, then his hot breath could turn to the small Baltic countries…
Putin wanted to deny the Ukrainian nation and impose unity on his “little blood brothers” (also called “little Russians”). Today, by a macabre paradox, this distinct nation exists more than ever. It defends before the world a certain idea of freedom and national independence.
And the “blood ties” dear to Putin, he destroyed them in blood.
François Brousseau is an international affairs columnist at Ici Radio-Canada. [email protected]