Pro-life activists want to see their own candidate in the Tory leadership race and are hoping for the entry of MP Leslyn Lewis. But when they have to fall back on a second choice, in the preferential ballot, they risk turning to Pierre Poilievre rather than Jean Charest. Which would then deprive the former Quebec premier of a significant number of votes.
The race to elect the next leader of the Conservative Party is expected to get under way next week. The organizing committee is preparing to reveal the rules at this time, according to our information. Jean Charest is waiting for these terms to seal his decision. Columnist Tasha Kheiriddin and other potential candidates too. Pierre Poilievre’s camp is pushing for the race to be held quickly.
Each of the fringes of the party is actively courting its candidate, to convince him to take the leap. Pro-life groups and activists are hoping anti-abortion MP Leslyn Lewis will indeed make the leap. “We need a candidate from the social fringe of the Conservative Party,” insists Jack Fonseca, of the Campaign Life Coalition.
Ms Lewis came third in the 2020 race and is indeed preparing to stand as a candidate, our sources say. Eliminated in the second round of this ballot, she had then earned 60,000 of the 171,000 votes cast (ie more than those collected respectively by Erin O’Toole and Peter MacKay).
The preferential ballot provides for a second or a third choice, in anticipation of the elimination of his favorite. Ottawa-area MP Pierre Poilievre — the only candidate to have officially announced himself so far — “could very well potentially” win the pro-lifers’ votes this time around, according to Scott Hayward, co-founder of the anti-abortion group Right Now which will survey the various candidates before recommending, as in each race, to its 30,000 supporters how to vote.
A significant third of votes
Mr. Poilievre had a perfect record in the eyes of the Campaign Life Coalition, which tracks the votes cast by elected officials on pro-life issues. That was until 2020, when he mused about getting into the previous leadership race and promised that a government under him would stop pro-life bills from being passed.
Which makes Jack Fonseca say that Mr. Poilievre and Mr. Charest are both “pro-abortion”. For this reason, the Campaign Life Coalition – which reaches 300,000 families – is likely to recommend that its supporters not register either of them on their preferential ballot. “We will not endorse pro-abortion candidates. Because politicians must understand that to earn our support, they must offer us concrete political commitments. Otherwise, they just take us for granted,” laments Mr. Fonseca in an interview. “Becoming socially liberal is not the key to victory. This is a guaranteed defeat for the Conservatives. »
The social fringe of the CCP is very influential. It was its members that propelled the winners of the last two races, Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole, to the front row. “You can’t ignore one-third of the party,” says former MP Brad Trost, who remains involved in the pro-life movement. “It would be like dismissing the entire province of Quebec, which has 22% of the votes. It would be completely insane. »
Mr. Trost also predicts that Pierre Poilievre “is much better positioned to receive second picks” from pro-life conservatives.
Camp Poilievre elbows
The entourage of the aspiring chef put pressure this week on the organizing committee of the race so that it ends by the summer.
MP John Williamson, who supports Mr. Poilievre, wrote to all his colleagues ahead of a meeting between the committee and elected officials on Thursday to urge them to demand the same. Justin Trudeau’s government is a minority, Williamson argued in the email. The duty got a copy. “I feel we should have a chef in place by early summer, which for me would be before Canada Day. That’s four months away, which gives plenty of time for candidates to campaign and recruit new members,” he argued. His message would have been taken up by many, according to a source.
A slightly longer game, with a vote in September, would give Jean Charest or other progressive candidates more time to recruit members. The opposite would favor Pierre Poilievre, who is very popular with the current membership of the party.
In addition to these two potential candidates, columnist Tasha Kheiriddin is very tempted to get started, according to our information. The mayor of Brampton, former Conservative MP and former leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party Patrick Brown is also thinking about it.