At first glance, Vladimir Putin’s unilateral decision could appear as a break in the negotiation process which had been started in particular with Emmanuel Macron. But negotiating is not just about talking: promises and threats are also part of the negotiation process. However, at this time, the European Union and the United States are precisely threatening Russia with greater sanctions if the decision were to be taken to annex part of the Ukrainian territory: it is indeed the continuation of a dynamic of negotiation , was it carried, from now on, by means of pressure.
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The whole question is to know which side leans the balance of power. This is not easy because in negotiation, the balance of power depends on a large number of variables. It cannot be observed: it is evaluated. And this is precisely the exercise to which Clément Beaune, the Secretary of State for European Affairs, took part this morning at the microphone of France Inter:
“It’s true that we are dependent on Russia, on gas and energy. And Vladimir Putin is playing on this. We still have to be aware that as Westerners, as Europeans, our own strength. The Russians are much more dependent on us.”
“Russia has the GDP of Spain, and 80% of its gas exports are to Europe. So we have leverage, and we can impose our interests.”
Clément Beaune, Secretary of State for European Affairsat France Inter
For Clément Beaune, the situation is therefore quite clear: the balance of power is to the advantage of the Europeans. But it seems more complicated. One of the main arguments of the Secretary of State to assess the balance of economic forces is to rely on the GDP of Russia. It is correct that it is ten times less than the GDP of the EU. But to say that is to point to a power relationship. However, the relationship of forces is not the same as the relationship of power.
To understand this, it suffices to draw a parallel with the military plan. The combined military power of France, Britain and the United States is far superior to Russian military might. But what would a military escalation between Russia and NATO forces mean? In the end: a nuclear war, probably millions of deaths, which is obviously not acceptable to anyone. The power ratio is asymmetrical, but the force ratio is balanced. Basically, in negotiation, it doesn’t matter how big your opponent is: the only thing that matters is whether he has a gun to your head.
And precisely, in economic terms, Russia has a loaded gun with regard to the European Union: energy. 40% of the gas used by the EU is imported from Russia. A disruption in supply would be dramatic for the economy and, beyond that, the daily lives of Europeans.
But the converse is true: as Clément Beaune points out, the Russian economy is dependent on European imports. This is precisely why economic sanctions have a certain effectiveness. Economically, it really looks like a situation of interdependence.
But, when trying to estimate a balance of power, there are other criteria that must be taken into consideration, in particular the influence of the stakeholders. And in this case, there is a stakeholder that it seems difficult to ignore: it is public opinion. Within the European Union, one can imagine that populations would react quite badly to a drastic increase in energy prices. This is a problem that arises less clearly for Vladimir Putin, who exercises power with authority, even in an authoritarian manner.
In short: difficult to know where all this will lead us. One thing is certain: this cannot be reduced to a simple question of GDP.