Tensions in Ukraine | A salvo of sanctions

Many Western countries announced Tuesday a first wave of sanctions against Moscow in reaction to the announcement of the deployment of Russian troops in the separatist territories of eastern Ukraine without influencing the bellicose posture of Vladimir Putin.

Marc Thibodeau
The Press

In a speech at the White House, the American head of state Joe Biden castigated the decision of his Russian counterpart by noting that it is about the “beginning of an invasion” of the country which must be slowed down by a firm response. of the international community.

Mr. Biden pointed out that measures had been put in place to limit the Russian state’s access to Western capital, to hinder the action of two major banking institutions and to sanction members of the Russian elite close to Mr. Putin .

The American leader promised that other sanctions would be added depending on the future actions of Russia, which was also targeted on Tuesday by the European Union.

The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, quoted by Agence France-Presse, announced that a series of measures likely to do “very badly” to Moscow had been approved unanimously.

All members of the Lower House of the Russian Parliament who last week called on Vladimir Putin to recognize the independence of the separatist territories will notably see their assets abroad frozen and will be subject to visa restrictions.

Germany has also announced the suspension of the approval process for the Nord Stream II gas pipeline linking Russia to Germany, an important economic issue for both countries.

Canada and Great Britain also announced measures against Moscow, which dismissed these initiatives with a shrug.

“Our European, American, English colleagues will not stop and calm down until they have exhausted all existing possibilities to supposedly punish Russia,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. , quoted by Reuters.

Lavrov’s planned visit to Paris on Thursday to discuss modalities for a hypothetical summit between Russian and US leaders, as well as a scheduled meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, were canceled in the day, confirming the current diplomatic deadlock.

Inadmissible requirement

Syracuse University Russia expert Brian Taylor said on Tuesday that the announcement of sanctions and their potential effect were likely anticipated by the Kremlin before the independence of territories controlled by pro-Russian separatists was recognized. in Donbass, in eastern Ukraine, and the announced deployment of Russian soldiers for a “pacification” mission.

Such a posture, underlines Mr. Taylor, has no chance of materializing and would be politically untenable for the government of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, who refuses to cede the slightest “parcel” of the country to Russia.

Mr. Zelensky announced on Tuesday the conscription of reservists to strengthen the ranks of the army, but ruled out a general mobilization of the population.

Eugene Rumer, Russia specialist attached to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, also thinks that it is unlikely that Vladimir Putin will change his strategy because of the announcement of sanctions, severe or not.

The Kremlin, he said, continued on Tuesday to put in place “the pieces of the puzzle” required to achieve its military ends by obtaining permission from the Russian parliament to deploy soldiers abroad.

A “shock” intervention

While many Western countries claim the opposite, Vladimir Putin maintained that Russian soldiers had not yet been sent to Ukrainian soil and that the scenario could even be avoided if Kiev agrees to give in to his demands.

Mr. Rumer notes that the Russian leader confirmed at the same time that the recognition of the separatist territories extended to the whole of Donbass, a clarification which could prove to have serious consequences for the future since the Ukrainian army controls a significant part of the region.

The Russian regime, warns the analyst, could try to advance its troops beyond the line of contact that has separated the two camps for several years. The maneuver would force Kiev into combat and could serve as a pretext for large-scale military action by Russia.

“The next logical step for Putin in the coming days is to initiate this military push. I don’t see why he would wait long,” notes Rumer, who expects Moscow to ultimately combine various techniques, including cyberattacks and airstrikes, for a “shock” intervention that could bring down the Ukrainian government. .

The aggressive remarks made by the Russian president on Monday towards Ukraine, described as a “colony” of the United States representing a serious threat to his country, make it clear that control of Donbass is only a secondary issue, underlines the analyst.

Sam Greene, a political scientist attached to King’s College London, tweeted on Tuesday that the latest Russian announcements keep the pressure on the Ukrainian regime and Western countries, regardless of the Kremlin’s ultimate military objective.

“Moscow will effectively ‘reserve the right’ to continue advancing its troops, forcing Kiev, Brussels and Washington to factor the possibility of war into all their calculations,” he warned.