Although the peak of the Omicron wave has been crossed in the country, a further increase in COVID-19 cases is possible in the coming weeks due to the relaxations, but a reduction in hospitalizations is expected, according to projections by federal authorities. .
The Public Health Agency of Canada presented three different scenarios on Friday on the evolution of hospitalizations and transmission taking into account the relief announced recently by several provinces.
In the event of a “significant effect” from the relaxations of measures, “we could expect a larger upsurge in daily Omicron cases, potentially exceeding previous peaks, but that the peak in daily hospitalizations could be much lower. ”, explained the chief public health officer, DD Theresa Tam, in a virtual press conference.
A second projection assessing a “moderate effect” of the reductions on transmission predicts a “limited” increase in cases and a “more modest” increase in hospitalizations.
The last, most optimistic scenario estimates no effect on transmission.
These forecasts remain uncertain due to changes in data availability, warned the DD Tam.
“The good news is that current levels of immunity in the Canadian population should reduce the impact of infections with the Omicron variant in the future,” said the one who provided an update on the pandemic in the country with the assistant. -Chief Administrator, Dr. Howard Njoo.
The latter said that it is difficult for public health to determine which of the scenarios is most likely to materialize because of the different context of each of the provinces.
“Position stronger than ever”
He and his colleague still urge caution and to prepare “for the emergence of new variants which could appear suddenly”. Particular attention is paid to the Omicron BA.2 sub-variant.
Nevertheless, “there is room for cautious optimism” and a “more balanced” approach to regaining some normality, since the country relies on several prevention, detection and treatment tools to reduce serious illnesses and deaths.
“We are in a stronger position than ever before,” said the two doctors, listing vaccination and sanitary measures as having minimized serious harm and saved lives.
Average cases and hospitalizations down
It is various indicators, including sewage analysis, that suggest Canada has passed the peak of the wave of the Omicron variant, federal public health said.
Despite an underestimation of recorded cases, the provinces report an average decrease in new infections every week. The national average was down 27% as of Feb. 16 from the previous week, said DD Tam.
A slowdown in hospitalizations is also being seen as most provinces have reported a reduction in people being treated for COVID-19 in hospitals over the past two weeks.
Declines particularly noted in Quebec and Ontario, which were the first to be affected by the Omicron wave, underlined Dr. Njoo.
In the past month, admissions of babies under the age of one to intensive care have been higher than at any time in the pandemic, said the DD Tam, inviting parents to take precautions to reduce the risks.
Hospitalizations have increased in this age group compared to previous waves, but remain low, she said.
Although the situation is improving overall, infection rates remain high and hospitals are still under heavy strain, warns public health.
Wearing masks, avoiding crowds and improving ventilation in indoor spaces remain important measures to ease pressure on hospitals and deal with a surge in cases, Dr Njoo said.
In terms of vaccination, more than 5.6 million Canadians had still not been vaccinated or had not received their second dose against COVID-19, according to the Public Health Agency.
Health Canada’s approval on Thursday for the protein-based Novavax vaccine could provide an alternative for those hesitant to get vaccinated with doses of messenger RNA, Drs Tam and Njoo believe.
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This article was produced with the financial support of the Facebook and The Canadian Press News Fellowships.