Missing the turn of the electric car

Environment Minister Benoit Charette has a new plan to sell more electric cars in Quebec.

At first glance, this is excellent news. The current plan is flawed and needs to be reviewed.

The big, big catch: this new plan doesn’t work any more than the old one.

We’re not the ones saying that. Neither Greenpeace nor Equiterre. It is the Ministry of the Environment itself, in an internal analysis that our colleague Charles Lecavalier (1) revealed on Wednesday.

The document concerns an “enhanced” standard that Mr. Charette proposes to impose on car dealerships to force them to offer more electric models.

Its effect on the number of electric vehicles in Quebec is summarized in a table that is worth examining. Because it shows at a glance how this proposed regulation misses the mark.

The “reference scenario” predicts that in 2025, there will be 632,000 electric vehicles in Quebec if we continue with the current regulations. With Mr. Charette’s reinforced standard? There would be… 632,000. Net effect: zero more vehicles.

It’s the same for 2026. For 2027. For 2028.

We have to wait until 2029 to see a modest contribution from the regulations, which would then add 12,000 vehicles to the base scenario – a contribution of barely 1%.

Optimists will say that the effects accelerate from 2030. Others will see this regulation for what it is: a fine intention that completely misses its objective. This “enhanced” standard does not reinforce anything until the end of the decade.

In 2030, Quebecers will have gone through at least two provincial elections. The Beijing Olympics will be a distant memory – just like those in Paris, Milan and Los Angeles.

Above all, Quebec will then have to show the international community whether it has achieved its commitment to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 37.5% compared to 1990 levels. The regulations on electric vehicles are presented by Quebec as a “flagship measure” of this reduction plan.

Does anyone still believe we’ll get there with what’s in place?

By adopting zero-emission vehicle standards in 2018, Quebec was a forerunner in Canada. This standard is based on a rather complex system whereby dealers accumulate credits by selling electric cars and then must turn over a certain amount to the government.

The problem is that, as with the carbon market, the government has distributed the credits happily. Currently, a dealer selling a single electric car can get up to four credits. Car sellers have accumulated such a number that they could meet their obligations for next September without selling a single electric vehicle by then across the province.

Minister Charette’s regulation aims precisely to restrict the allocation of credits. But the analysis of his ministry shows that it is insufficient.

Dealers and their customers will object that electric vehicles are out of stock in Quebec. It’s true. It often takes several months to get one. But let’s ask ourselves why Europeans and Asians manage to find it.

Electric vehicles represent only 9% of sales in Quebec, compared to 19% in China, 23% in France, 54% in Sweden and 90% in Norway. The experts tell us that if these people find such vehicles, it is precisely because convincing regulations have created a market there.

With its inexpensive hydroelectricity and its desire to break into the battery market, Quebec could be an electric car paradise. Alas, while the others advance, we are mired in the verge.