“We do not have to sacrifice the French and French industry on the altar of the fight against global warming. Let the Americans and the Chinese begin”, launched Eric Zemmour on Monday February 7, at the microphone of France Inter. The far-right candidate assured that he was not contesting “no way” global warming. But hastened to add: “I’m just saying that the French… France represents 1% of CO2 emissions.”
The two largest emitters in the world are indeed China, with 10,490 million tonnes of CO2 in 2019 (i.e. 29% of global emissions) and the United States, which generated 5,256 million tonnes of CO2 (i.e. 14% of global emissions). global emissions), according to data from the Global Carbon Project (in English). France, for its part, emitted 316 million tonnes of CO2 that year, making it the 20th largest emitting country in the world. It represents 0.9% of global emissions. However, this indicator covers several limits and masks certain realities. Decryption.
The French emit more than the average
Comparing greenhouse gas emissions across an entire country does not take into account differences in population size across the world. China is certainly the first emitting country, but it is also the most populous, with 1.4 billion inhabitants, or 18% of the population of the Earth. “If we look at emissions per capita, the ranking of the countries with the highest CO2 emissions is completely different”observes Françoise Vimeux, climatologist at the Research Institute for Development (IRD).
Globally, an average person produced 4.8 tonnes of CO2 in 2019, according to the Global Carbon Project. Qatar, of which one inhabitant rejects 41 tons of CO2 per year, then becomes the highest emitting country. With 16 tonnes of CO2 per person, the United States ranks 11th. China drops to 50th in the world, with 7.3 tonnes of CO2 per capita.
For its part, France is in 78th position, with 4.9 tonnes of CO2 emitted per inhabitant. However, if we add the other greenhouse gases contributing to global warming, such as methane or nitrous oxide, a French person emits an average of 6.5 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year, according to a report from the High Council for the Climate (PDF), published in September.
Moreover, beyond emissions, if all of humanity consumed as many resources as a Frenchman, it would take 2.7 planets like the Earth to meet our needs, according to a calculation by the think tank Global Footprint Network. This indicator places us in 8th place among the biggest consumers in the world. For comparison, if everyone lived like a Chinese, it would take 2.2 planets. An American’s way of life would require the equivalent of five planets.
France matters a lot
Eric Zemmour’s argument is based on territorial emissions, that is to say those produced on French soil. However, the phone or computer you are reading this article on was probably made in China. Thus, even if it was designed for you, the greenhouse gases emitted during its manufacture are counted abroad.
To take into account the impact of international trade on our greenhouse gas emissions, it is therefore necessary to measure the carbon footprint. In 2019, that of France amounted to 663 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, or 10 tonnes per inhabitant, according to the High Council for the Climate (HCC). A figure much higher than the only territorial broadcasts.
“The French import more carbon goods and services than they export.”
The High Council for the Climatein a report published in September 2021
“France has become a deindustrialized country, so we import a lot”analyzes Gilles Ramstein, co-author of the book Climate in 100 questions (ed. Tallandier). It is one of the “CO2 importing” countries (in red on the map of the OurWorldinData site below). Conversely, China is a “CO2 exporting” country (in blue) and emits greenhouse gases to produce and meet the consumption of other countries.
France is a historic polluter
France’s balance sheet must also be interpreted in the light of its past emissions. “France is one of the first countries to have released carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.recalls Françoise Vimeux. So we have a historic responsibility.”
If we observe the accumulation greenhouse gas emissions, the United States is the country that has emitted the most CO2 with 416 billion tons released since 1750. Next comes China, which is responsible for 14% of emissions with 235 billion tons of CO2 emitted.
France has emitted 38 billion tonnes of CO2 since the middle of the 18th century (2% of the total). It is the 8th biggest historical polluter. Germany, which has emitted 92 billion tonnes of CO2 since 1750 (5.6% of emissions), ranks 4th, followed by the United Kingdom, with 78 billion tonnes of CO2 emitted (4.7% shows).
France has commitments to keep
Eric Zemmour’s speech “implies that if we are the only ones to act, it will not be enough”, deciphers Françoise Vimeux. The fight against climate change is indeed a global issue that requires a collective commitment. But having orchestrated the Paris agreement in 2015, France has a leading role and “a certain duty to set an example”says the climatologist.
“We are a rich country, so we have an ability to act that other countries do not have.”
Françoise Vimeux, climatologistat franceinfo
France has “know-how, companies, and training among the best in the world” which allow it to be a driving force on climate issues. However, for the time being, our country “makes an effort, but not enough”. France is indeed struggling to meet its objectives to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. “Greenhouse gas emissions only decreased by 1% per year on average between 2015 and 2018”explains the organization Citepa, responsible for studying the effects of climate policies in its 2021 report (PDF). The National Low-Carbon Strategy, adopted in 2015, nevertheless projected a decrease of 2.2% per year on average over this period.
“The biggest challenge for France is transport”, comments Gilles Ramstein. With 136 million tonnes of CO2eq, transport is the sector that emits the most greenhouse gases in France (31% of emissions), far ahead of industry (19% of emissions) and agriculture (19% of emissions), according to data from the High Council for the Climate.
Moreover, France has long relied on nuclear energy, which produces few greenhouse gases. In 2020, 67.1% of electricity still came from the 56 reactors in operation, according to the TEN manager. However, the government is committed to reducing this share to 50% by 2035, and must therefore develop sustainable and carbon-free alternatives to hope to meet this objective.
Global warming does not spare France
By sending the ball back to China and the United States, Eric Zemmour seems to hide the fact that France is itself directly concerned by the consequences of climate change. “Two-thirds of the French population are already highly or very highly exposed to climate risks”warns the High Council for the climate.
“Over the past seven years, with the exception of 2021, the country has experienced heat waves almost every summer”, observes Françoise Vimeux. In the long term, temperatures will continue to rise and heat waves will increase. “Very hot days (exceeding the average by 5°C) will be more numerous: from 36 today, they would increase around 2030 to more than 40 (optimistic scenario), even more than 70 (pessimistic scenario)”notes the Ecological Transition Agency (Ademe).
Our greenhouse gas emissions also accentuate thea rise in sea level and the retreat of certain coastlines. In France, several coastal towns are already threatened by rising waters.
>> Is your city or your beach threatened by global warming?
Finally, in recent years, France has experienced several extreme weather phenomena. Climatologist Françoise Vimeux cites, for example, the torrential rains that ravaged the Roya and Vésubie valleys in autumn 2020 or more recently Cyclone Batsirai, which hit Reunion in particular.