(Washington) Retail sales rebounded more than expected in January in the United States, showing consumption still solid despite the Omicron variant of COVID-19, but inflated by inflation, prices climbing at their fastest pace in four decades.
Posted at 11:13 a.m.
Total sales were $649.8 billion last month, up 3.8%, according to data released Wednesday by the Commerce Department. This is more than the 1.9% increase that was expected by analysts.
For the White House, this rebound “is not an accident”, President Joe Biden “has taken concrete steps to put Americans back to work, fight COVID-19 and solve supply chain problems, helping our economy continue to build on what has already been a historic period of growth,” she tweeted.
“The immediate consequence of these figures is that the forecasts for GDP growth in the first quarter will be revised upwards significantly,” underlines Ian Shepherdson, economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, who expects growth “of around 4%, or double of [leurs] previous forecasts.
Consumption is indeed the engine of American growth.
“Our initial fears of very slow growth in the face of the Omicron wave are now well mitigated,” he explains.
At the rate of shortages
However, this rebound should be put into perspective, the fall in December having been stronger than expected, by 2.5% against -1.9% initially announced, according to a revision also published on Wednesday.
Americans had in fact gotten ahead of their year-end purchases for fear of shortages, and retail sales had consequently fallen in December compared to October and November.
In January, compared to January 2021, the increase was 11.4%, including an increase of 33.4% for sales of service stations, and 27% for bars and restaurants.
“A resumption of shipments of vehicles, furniture and appliances, which had been behind schedule since last summer due to semiconductor shortages, boosted spending,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist, in a note. for Grant Thornton.
More than the strength or weakness of demand, it is mostly “shortages and the rate at which people can get what they want (that) play a bigger role” in the evolution of retail sales, she says. .
Sales were driven, in the first month of 2022, by sales of cars and car spare parts (+5.7% compared to December).
However, the latter “actually fell slightly after adjusting” prices with inflation, says Diane Swonk, pointing out that new vehicle prices jumped in January at “their fastest rate on record”.
Inflation hit 7.5% year-on-year in January, its fastest pace in nearly 40 years, according to the Labor Department’s CPI index. In particular, used car prices soared by more than 40% between January 2021 and January 2022.