The United States claimed on Friday that Russia could invade Ukraine before the end of the Beijing Olympics, scheduled for February 20, raising the specter of a war in Europe more than ever in a dramatic acceleration of events after a phase intense diplomacy.
“We continue to see signs of Russian escalation, including the arrival of new forces on the Ukrainian border,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned after a virtual meeting with US President Joe Biden. with its main Western counterparts.
“An invasion could occur at any time if Vladimir Putin gives the order,” he added. “It could start during the Olympics, despite all the speculation that it would only come after the Games,” he said.
According to him, such an offensive is a “very, very real possibility”, but American intelligence does not know whether the Russian president “has made a final decision” or not.
In the wake of these announcements, Wall Street fell sharply, while oil prices soared.
Westerners “ready for all scenarios”
Joe Biden’s adviser reaffirmed that Westerners were “ready for all scenarios”, with an unprecedented response planned in the event of war, but also an outstretched diplomatic hand to continue negotiations with Moscow on security in Europe.
Some 3,000 more American soldiers will be ready in Poland “in the coming days”, also announced another senior American official.
President Biden could thus speak on the telephone soon with his Russian counterpart. The French head of state, Emmanuel Macron, will speak to Vladimir Putin from Saturday noon, according to the Elysee, before a visit to Moscow by German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, early next week.
Western leaders met on Friday afternoon as European diplomatic efforts bog down to try to prevent the Russian-Western crisis over Ukraine from escalating into war.
“The allies are determined to jointly take swift and drastic sanctions against Russia in the event of further violations of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine”, tweeted the spokesman for the German Chancellor, after of this meeting. “All diplomatic efforts are aimed at persuading Moscow to move towards de-escalation. The goal is to prevent a war in Europe. »
The teleconference brought together Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, but also NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel. Also present were Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, his British counterpart Boris Johnson, Polish President Andrzej Duda, and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi.
“Aerial Bombings”
Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed that “all options were on the table and that the sanctions would concern the financial and energy sectors, as well as exports of high-tech products”, specified her services.
Boris Johnson has declared to his allies “to fear for the security of Europe”.
The White House has praised the “remarkable” unity of Westerners in the face of what they consider to be the most dangerous moment for Europe since the end of the Cold War thirty years ago.
The Americans, who shared the analyzes of their intelligence services with their allies, sketched out a dramatic scenario in the event of a Russian offensive.
This “would probably start with aerial bombardments and missile fire which could obviously kill civilians”, Jake Sullivan told the press. It could also include “a rapid assault” on Kiev.
The adviser called on Americans in Ukraine to leave the country “within 24 to 48 hours”, relaying the very direct warning issued the day before by Joe Biden, who had warned that “things could get carried away very quickly “.
The American president had however repeated that he would not send soldiers on the ground in Ukraine, even to evacuate Americans in the event of a Russian invasion, because this could trigger “a world war”.
Several rounds of talks in recent days have failed to make progress in resolving the crisis, which arose from the deployment in recent months on Ukraine’s borders of more than 100,000 Russian soldiers with heavy weapons.
Military maneuvers at the border
On Friday, the Kremlin noted that discussions bringing together representatives of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France the day before in Berlin – in a format dubbed “Normandy” – had produced “no results”. .
These discussions focus on the conflict in eastern Ukraine, which since 2014 has pitted Russian-backed separatists against the Ukrainian army and has claimed more than 14,000 lives. They lasted nearly ten hours and were “difficult”, according to sources close to the French and German negotiators.
Moscow, which has already annexed Crimea in 2014, denies any aggressive intentions towards Ukraine, but conditions any de-escalation on a series of requirements, in particular the assurance that Kiev will never integrate NATO. Unacceptable, say Westerners.
In parallel with this observation, Russia announced new military maneuvers on the Ukrainian border.
While it has already been conducting large-scale exercises in Belarus, also neighboring Ukraine, since Thursday, Moscow announced on Friday other training for “combat missions” in the Russian border region of Rostov, with hundreds of soldiers. and tanks.
In addition, the Russian navy conducts maneuvers in the Black Sea, of which Ukraine is also bordering.