The hope of avoiding a war in Ukraine grew on Wednesday after the intense diplomatic activity of recent days, which offers “real chances” of de-escalation according to Kiev, the Kremlin like the West noting first positive signals.
“Today, there are real chances for a diplomatic settlement”, welcomed in Kiev the head of Ukrainian diplomacy, Dmytro Kouleba, for whom the situation remains “tense, but under control”.
The threats of “unprecedented” sanctions in the event of an attack on Ukraine by Russia, as well as the talks of recent days could remove the specter of a war in Europe, wants to believe the Ukrainian government.
The German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, also showed optimism, welcoming Wednesday the “progress” born from the resumption of intense diplomatic exchanges between Russia and the West. “The mission is to ensure security in Europe and I believe we will achieve that,” he added.
The French presidency also welcomed on Wednesday the fact that Emmanuel Macron’s tour to Moscow, Kiev and Berlin had achieved its “objective” by making it possible to “move forward” to appease the situation.
It is now a question of “allowing everyone to take a break and consider the means of de-escalation […] at a time of growing tensions” on the Russian-Ukrainian border, according to the same source.
“Positive signs”
“There have been positive signals about Ukraine’s decision to act solely on the basis of the Minsk agreements, that’s a plus,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. referring to the agreements signed in 2014 and 2015 by Kiev and the separatists under the aegis of Paris, Berlin and Moscow, which aimed to end the conflict in eastern Ukrainian territory.
“But we did not hear the president [ukrainien, Volodymyr] Zelensky, say he was ready to deal with it quickly,” he continued.
After a long face-to-face Monday in the Kremlin, Emmanuel Macron assured that he had received guarantees from Vladimir Putin so that there would be no additional “escalation”.
On Wednesday, the French head of state informed Joe Biden by telephone of “his recent meetings” with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts, the White House announced.
“They also discussed ongoing diplomatic and deterrence efforts, undertaken in close coordination with our allies and partners, in response to Russia’s continued military deployment on Ukraine’s borders,” she added.
Russia is preparing to receive the head of British diplomacy, Liz Truss, for a two-day trip. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is on his way to Poland, where the United Kingdom intends to deploy additional soldiers.
Scholz-Putin meeting
It is in this context that Olaf Scholz is increasing his involvement, in response to criticism in recent weeks of his discretion and supposed complacency towards Moscow.
After welcoming the head of the Danish government, Mette Frederiksen, on Wednesday, Angela Merkel’s successor will receive the leaders of the Baltic countries, neighbors of a worrying Russia, on Thursday.
Despite the announcement of the dispatch of 350 more German soldiers to Lithuania as part of a NATO mission, Berlin’s reluctance over Estonia’s delivery of German weapons to Kiev has created tensions these last weeks.
After his visit to Washington on Monday, intended to reassure the Americans, then the meeting on Tuesday in the German capital of the Weimar Triangle, formed with France and Poland, Mr. Scholz is walking on a thread, between the expectations of his Western partners and his country’s dependence on Russian gas.
The reserves of this hydrocarbon in Germany have also fallen to a “worrying” level, below the critical threshold of 40%, the government announced on Wednesday.
The high point of this diplomatic activity: the long-awaited visit that Olaf Scholz will make to Vladimir Putin on February 15, the first since his election to the chancellery at the beginning of December.
The shadow of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which links Russia to Germany and is still awaiting certification, continues to hang over relations between these two countries.
The German Chancellor thus assured a group of American senators that the gas pipeline “would not go ahead” if Russia invaded Ukraine, said an elected official after the meeting.
An unknown remains, however, as to the real intentions of Mr. Putin, who did not say a word on Monday of the tens of thousands of Russian soldiers deployed on the borders of Ukraine.