(Moscow) Russia coldly welcomed Washington’s rejection of its security demands on Thursday, an exchange that fuels the Russian-Western crisis over Ukraine, but both sides have kept the door open for dialogue.
Posted at 6:21 a.m.
Updated at 7:30 a.m.
The United States and NATO unsurprisingly formally rejected key demands from Moscow on Wednesday: an end to the Atlantic Alliance’s enlargement policy and a return to its military deployments on the 1997 borders.
Russia sees these points as existential threats fueling the risk of conflict in Ukraine. It therefore wants to redesign the European security architecture resulting from the end of the Cold War and the USSR.
“We cannot say that our points of view have been taken into account, or that there is a will to take our concerns into consideration”, regretted Thursday the spokesman of the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, adding that Moscow was going react without rushing.
Diplomatic door open?
The head of diplomacy Sergei Lavrov also noted the absence of a “positive response” to the main Russian claim. But he left the door open to dialogue, noting that we can “hope for the start of a serious conversation on secondary issues”.
The head of American diplomacy Antony Blinken indicated that he had offered a “serious diplomatic route” to Moscow with a view to de-escalation. In the past, Westerners have raised issues such as arms control and military transparency measures as matters of common interest.
Washington further urged Moscow not to invade neighboring Ukraine, an offensive that would result in “global risks”.
Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers have been camped on the Ukrainian border with their armored vehicles since the end of 2021, so the United States believes that Vladimir Putin could take action “between now and mid-February”.
Russia denies any plan of invasion, but considers itself threatened by the expansion of NATO for 20 years as well as by Western support for its Ukrainian neighbor.
Chinese support for Moscow
Moscow has warned that the rejection of its demands would result in reprisals, sweeping away the threats of unprecedented sanctions that the West says it wants to impose in the event of an offensive in Ukraine.
Berlin nevertheless insisted that Russia exposes itself to “massive consequences” in the event of aggression against its neighbour, putting on the table the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, a strategic and controversial infrastructure which Moscow has been waiting for to be put into service for months.
Russia can be satisfied with the explicit support of China, the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, having defended Thursday the “reasonable concerns” of Moscow for its security, during a telephone exchange with his American counterpart.
If the Ukrainians aspire to join NATO, Westerners have been telling them for years that such an enlargement is not in the cards.
The Kremlin, on the other hand, is calling for “legal guarantees” on the end of the expansion of the Alliance, which the West refuses to do in the name of the right of States to choose their allies.
A principle to which Mr. Lavrov opposes “the need to take into account the security interests” of others.
Ukraine does receive Western assistance, even if the Ukrainian authorities consider it too limited given the extent of Russian support for pro-Russian separatists since 2014 in the east of the country.
Despite its repeated denials, Moscow appears to be the instigator of this conflict triggered after the annexation of Ukrainian Crimea.
Weapons for the separatists?
In this case, a glimmer of hope appeared on Wednesday evening after weeks of warlike rhetoric: a meeting in Paris brought together Russian, Ukrainian negotiators and Franco-German mediators who agreed on a new meeting in February.
France welcomed “a good signal” of “reengagement” from the Russians, before an interview on Friday between President Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin.
At the same time, however, the Kremlin party, United Russia, on Wednesday called for arming separatists in Ukraine.
Thursday, the main representative of these secessionists called for modern weapons, in particular to deal with Ukrainian drones, acquired from Turkey and reputed to be extremely effective.
Reinforcing the feeling of a possible military escalation, Washington “urged” its nationals on Wednesday to “consider leaving now” from Ukraine.
The head of Ukrainian diplomacy Dmytro Kouleba judged the threat more measured, considering that the Russian forces as they were were not enough for “a large-scale offensive”.
Ukraine at the heart of several months of crisis between Russia and the West
Tensions have risen in recent months around Ukraine, which Westerners believe is under threat of a Russian invasion.
Kyiv and Moscow have been at loggerheads since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, followed by a war in eastern Ukraine with pro-Russian separatists whom the Kremlin is considered, despite its denials, as the military godfather.
Troop movements
On November 10, 2021, Washington demanded an explanation from Russia about “unusual” troop movements on the Ukrainian border. In April, Moscow had already massed around 100,000 soldiers at the border.
Russian President Vladimir Putin accuses the West of delivering weapons to Kiev and conducting “provocative” military exercises in the Black Sea and near the border.
Fear of an offensive
On the 28th, Ukraine assures us that Russia has massed nearly 92,000 soldiers on its borders, for an offensive at the end of January or the beginning of February.
The Russian authorities deny this intention, accusing in return Ukraine of massing troops in the east of the country.
Biden-Putin Summit
On December 7, US President Joe Biden threatens Vladimir Putin with “strong economic sanctions” in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, during a bilateral virtual summit.
The Russian president demands “sure legal guarantees” preventing Ukraine from joining NATO.
On the 17th, Moscow unveils two draft treaties providing for the banning of any enlargement of NATO as well as the establishment of American military bases in the countries of the former Soviet space.
Diplomatic week
On January 10, 2022, Russians and Americans engage in tense negotiations in Geneva.
On the 12th, NATO and Russia noted their deep “differences” on security in Europe, during a NATO-Russia council in Brussels.
Russian troops in Belarus
On the 18th, Moscow begins to deploy soldiers to Belarus for “impromptu” combat readiness exercises on the borders of the EU and Ukraine.
Washington is worried about the possible deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in this ally.
Blinken in Ukraine
On the 19th, Antony Blinken called on Vladimir Putin to choose the “peaceful path” during a support visit to Ukraine, the start of a European tour.
Washington is releasing an additional $200 million in security aid to the country.
On the 20th, the United States approves requests from the Baltic countries to ship American weapons to Ukraine.
Lavrov-Blinken meeting
On the 21st, Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov meet in Geneva and agree that Washington will present the following week a written response to Russian demands.
Russia is calling in particular for the withdrawal of foreign NATO troops present in Romania and Bulgaria.
Invasion “at any time”
On the 22nd, London accused Russia of seeking to “install a pro-Russian leader in Kiev” and of “considering” “occupying” Ukraine.
On the 23rd, Kiev declared that it wanted to dismantle “all pro-Russian oligarchic and political structure”.
In the evening, Washington, before London and Canberra, ordered the evacuation of the families of diplomats stationed in Kiev in the face of a “Russian invasion” that could “occur at any moment”.
Forces on alert
On the 24th, NATO announced that it was placing forces on standby and sending ships and combat aircraft to reinforce its defenses in Eastern Europe. Washington puts up to 8,500 soldiers on alert.
The Kremlin accuses Washington of causing “an exacerbation of tensions” and shortly after launches new maneuvers near Ukraine and in annexed Crimea.
The “no” in Moscow
On the 26th, Washington formally refused to commit to closing NATO’s door to Ukraine, while proposing to Moscow to seek a “serious diplomatic path”.
According to the United States, “everything indicates” that Vladimir Putin will use “military force” against Ukraine by mid-February. Washington “urges” its nationals to “consider leaving now” from the country.
In Paris, a meeting of Russian and Ukrainian envoys with French and German mediators results in a joint commitment to preserve the ceasefire between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
Chinese support for Moscow
On the 27th, China supports Moscow’s “reasonable security concerns” vis-à-vis Ukraine.