The United States rejected on Wednesday, in its written response to Russia, one of Moscow’s main demands, refusing to close NATO’s door to Ukraine, but claim to have offered a “diplomatic way” to avoid a new war.
The long-awaited letter was delivered by the US ambassador to the Russian Foreign Ministry amid extreme tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border, where Washington has said it expects a possible attack by Russian forces by mid- February.
“Everything indicates” that President Vladimir Putin “will use military force at some point, perhaps between now and mid-February,” said US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman. However, she stressed that the opening of the Beijing Olympics on February 4 could influence “its calendar”, to avoid offending Chinese President Xi Jinping during this major event for China.
Tensions have steadily risen in recent months, with Moscow being accused by the West of having deployed more than 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border for a potential offensive. Russia, for its part, demands guarantees for its security, including the rejection of this country’s membership of NATO.
“Open Door”
The Americans and the Atlantic Alliance delivered two separate letters to Moscow on Wednesday in response to the draft treaties sent to them by the Russians in mid-December.
However, the United States has “clearly made it known” that it is “determined to maintain and defend” the “right of States to choose their own security arrangements and their alliances”, hammered the head of American diplomacy, Antony Blinken . The letter reaffirms “that we defend the principle of the open door at NATO”, he added.
The Secretary of State forcefully reiterated Western warnings of an unprecedented response against Russia in the event of an invasion of the neighboring country.
However, he assured that this missive offered “a serious diplomatic channel if Russia so wishes”, and said he was ready to speak again “in the coming days” with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.
The US government is proposing to relaunch formal negotiations on “arms control”, including strategic missiles and nuclear weapons stationed in Europe.
He also mentions “the possibility of reciprocal transparency measures” on “military postures” and “military exercises” on the Old Continent.
“We are again reaching out to Russia to try to pursue a path of dialogue […] but we have also prepared for the worst”, summarized for his part the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg.
The moment of truth is therefore approaching.
Will Russia take this outstretched hand, or will it view the rejection of its key demands as a casus belli ?
“It’s an arbitration that will be done by Putin himself,” said Marie Dumoulin, of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank. “No one, even within the Russian system, knows which way the decision will go. »
Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Interfax that Russian diplomacy would now take the time to “study” the Western response, noting that the opposing side had “taken almost a month and half to analyze “the demands of Moscow.
Alongside this key step, Russian, Ukrainian, French and German negotiators met on Wednesday in Paris to try to lower tensions between Moscow and Kiev.
The French presidency considered “very encouraging” the relaunch of this format nicknamed Normandy, “the only one where the Russians are involved”. This will give a “clear indication of the state of mind” of the Kremlin ahead of Friday’s talks between French President Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin.
“Warfare Way”
Diplomacy, threats and noise of boots therefore continue to alternate in the Ukrainian crisis.
The United States placed some 8,500 troops on alert Monday, who could bolster NATO’s 40,000-strong Rapid Reaction Force, as Western military assistance pours into Kiev.
Reinforcing the feeling of a possible imminent explosion, Washington “urged” its nationals in Ukraine to “consider leaving now” to avoid being trapped “in a zone of conflict” – even if Kiev still considers the Russian deployment insufficient for a major attack.
Opposite, Sergei Lavrov promised “necessary response measures” if the West continues on this “belligerent path”, denouncing Western “hysteria” about the supposed imminence of a Russian military intervention in Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also downplayed the impact of possible personal sanctions from Washington against Vladimir Putin, considered Tuesday by US President Joe Biden. They would not be “politically painful” for the Russian head of state, although “destructive” for relations between Moscow and the West, he warned.