four questions on the presidential election which should make it possible to appoint a successor to Sergio Mattarella

Who will take over from Sergio Mattarella? A thousand voters vote, from Monday, January 24, to designate the next President of the Italian Republic. “Guarantor of the Constitution”, the Head of State assumes the role of arbiter without getting directly involved in the country’s politics, led by the Prime Minister. And it is precisely the current head of government, Mario Draghi, who is expected to win the election, according to the local press. After campaigning behind the scenes, billionaire (and former Prime Minister) Silvio Berlusconi has given up on running for the highest state office.

But the appointment of the president by Parliament, during a vote whose outcome is deemed uncertain, may hold surprises. Franceinfo takes stock of the rules and issues of this election.

How is the Italian president appointed?

The Head of State, who must be at least 50 years old and have Italian nationality, is elected for seven years by indirect suffrage. He is chosen by an assembly made up of members of the two chambers of Parliament, ie 630 deputies and 321 senators, as well as 58 delegates from the regions. In total, 1,009 electors are therefore gathered from Monday to appoint the successor to Sergio Mattarella, whose term will end on February 3.

The vote takes place by secret ballot in the hemicycle of Palazzo Montecitorio, seat of the Chamber of Deputies, in Rome. To be elected in the first three rounds, a candidate must obtain a two-thirds majority (672 votes). From the fourth round, an absolute majority, ie 505 votes, is sufficient. And the process can take time: as the correspondent in Rome of Release, the record is 23 laps, in 1971, to designate Giovanni Leone. Since the first presidential election in 1948, only three polls have seen the winner win in the first round, the daily specifies.

This year, health constraints have turned the holding of the vote upside down. Only one round of voting is organized each day, whereas previously several could take place on the same day. A voting point has also been installed in the parking lot of the Montecitorio Palace, to allow people who have tested positive for Covid-19 to vote from their car.

What are his powers?

Usually, the Italian president plays a discreet role in the political life of the country. Head of the armed forces and of the state, he appoints the head of government and, on the latter’s proposal, the ministers. He also presides over the Superior Council of the Judiciary, appoints one third of the members of the Constitutional Court, signs international treaties and has the right of pardon.

But, in the event of a political crisis (frequent in recent years in Italy), the role of the president becomes crucial. Inasmuch as “guarantor of the Constitution”, he indeed organizes the consultations on the formation of the government and has a certain latitude on the choice of the Prime Minister. This was the case, for example, when Sergio Mattarella called Mario Draghi in February 2021 after the failure of the consultations for the renewal of the outgoing coalition led by Giuseppe Conte (and after the explosion of three different governments in three years).

The Sicilian, a former judge at the Constitutional Court, had also vetoed the appointment of a eurosceptic Minister of the Economy in 2018, recall The echoes. “In my role as guarantor, I could not accept a choice that could have led to Italy’s exit from the euro and caused the concerns of Italian and foreign investors”, had then explained Sergio Mattarella.

The president also has the power to dissolve the two chambers of parliament, a threat that is sometimes agitated to lift partisan blockages. Finally, he can refuse to promulgate a law and send it back to the deputies and senators for modification.

Who are the potential successors to the presidency?

The man who is the favorite to settle in the Quirinal Palace (the presidential residence) is none other than Mario Draghi, the current President of the Council of Ministers. However, the former head of the ECB was careful not to officially announce his candidacy. On January 11, he declared again in a press conference that he “wouldn’t answer any questions” on the election, note The world.

But behind the scenes, those close to this figure in Italian political life (although he has never held an elective mandate) are campaigning and highlighting his assets for the position. Without partisan affiliation, Mario Draghi has indeed “was able to unite around him a government of national unity bringing together all the political sensitivities of the country and to convince the European allies to offer Italy 200 billion euros from the recovery plan over six years”, remember The Express.

Among the other names circulating in the transalpine press are that of another former Prime Minister, Giuliano Amato (83 years old, centrist), a European Commissioner for the Economy, paolo gentiloni (67 years old, left) and the former President of the Chamber of Deputies, Pier Ferdinando Casini (66 years old, centrist). Many also want a woman to take over the top job for the first time. In this case, the presidency could fall to the Minister of Justice, Marta Cartabia (58, centre-right) or her predecessor, Paola Severino (73, centre-right). The name of the President of the Senate, Elisabetta Casellati (66 years old, right), is also mentioned.

A time candidate, the former right-wing prime minister Silvio Berlusconi finally gave up running for the presidency on Saturday, January 22. “Today Italy needs unity”, he said, assuring to make this decision in a spirit of “national responsibility”. If he claimed to have the necessary votes, observers doubted the chances of the 85-year-old politician. He is indeed prosecuted for bribery of witnesses in a new part of “Rubygate”, the scandal of the orgies organized by Silvio Berlusconi in a villa with prostitutes.

Why is the outcome so uncertain?

The outcome of the Italian presidential election is reputed to be difficult to anticipate, in the first place because the ballot takes place by secret ballot. Traditionally, this position does not go to a party leader but to a personality judged above political parties. As a result, the politicians quoted before the election often come out empty-handed and the post falls to a name taken out of the hat during the voting operations.

This is the fate of Romano Prodi in 2013. Crowned with the prestige of his time as President of the European Commission and invested by the Democratic Party, he seemed well positioned to win. But he was betrayed by some of his supporters and Giorgio Napolitano won the majority of votes, becoming the only president to be reappointed.

This year, the election is all the more unpredictable as no party has enough weight in Parliament to obtain a clear majority. And the choice of Mario Draghi does not convince all elected officials. Some believe that he would bring more to his fellow citizens by remaining head of the Council and leading the reforms of the administration as well as the tax and judicial system, although his term is due to expire in 2023.

In less than a year in power, the former president of the ECB has mastered the balancing act of leading a government of national unity. In a country that has experienced multiple political crises, he is very popular (more than 60% of favorable opinions) and has significant credibility both on the international scene and in Italy, recalls The world.

If Mario Draghi left the government for the presidency, it would not be easy to find a replacement capable of bringing together very fragmented political forces.. Some therefore fear that his election to the Quirinal will cause a new political crisis, or even early legislative elections.

Faced with this risk, some are calling for the extension of Sergio Mattarella’s mandate. Faithful to the tradition that the outgoing president does not represent himself, the octogenarian has however already announced publicly that he preferred to give up his place and enjoy his retirement.