The report of the Institut de la statistique du Québec on the assessment of interregional migrations 2020-2021, published on January 13, presents data which, added to those of previous years, confirm trends that are upsetting the dynamics of occupation. of the territory. These are the flight of a growing section of the population from large cities, particularly Montreal, to other territories, on the one hand, the attractiveness of small and medium-sized towns and rural communities in the regions, somewhere else.
The statistics presented in this report reveal that the urban exodus caused the administrative region of Montreal to lose 48,257 people between July 2020 and July 2021 in its exchanges with the other regions, while these almost all recorded gains, sometimes records. If we consider only the number of “leavers”, 78,472 people left the Montreal region during the past year.
The phenomenon is not new, but it is growing over the years. For the period between 2001 and 2021, the Montreal region lost 458,173 people (1,170,734 outgoing against 712,561 incoming).
These departures increase the number of employees in the suburbs and regions bordering Montreal: Montérégie (6,299), Lanaudière (8,385), Laurentides (12,656), Estrie (8,554); but also, and in significant numbers, the workforce in intermediate and remote regions: Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine (1,378), Bas-Saint-Laurent (1,597), Mauricie (3,493), Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean (1405), Abitibi-Témiscamingue (-205), North Shore (-250). It should be noted that these last two regions had very negative balance sheets in 2001, i.e. -2005 and -1868 respectively, which have since fallen considerably.
The total annual interregional migratory balances of the seven intermediate and remote regions, which was -9,324 for the year 2001-2002, reached the positive figure of 11,086 in 2020-2021, which signifies the transition from a context of exodus to an encouraging situation of repopulation, as evidenced by an annual gain gap of 20,410 in 20 years (from -9,324 to 11,086).
Although Montreal is the most striking case of the phenomenon of urban exodus, other large cities and agglomerations are also affected: the city of Laval (-2073), the agglomeration of Quebec (-2081) in the region of the Capitale-Nationale, and the agglomeration of Gatineau (-1948) in the Outaouais region.
The regions and agglomerations with negative interregional migrations are not necessarily in deficit of demographic growth, because the latter is determined by two other variables: natural growth (gap between births and deaths) and interprovincial and international immigration. However, the latter has been particularly affected by the closure of borders as a measure to combat the spread of the coronavirus. Population contingents from other regions of Quebec have always been important contributors to the population growth of large cities. But now they are diminishing, while departures are increasing among them.
The occupation of the territory, a process of reconfiguration?
In large cities, a feeling of disenchantment with the living environment and the conditions of daily life is present among many: cost of housing and leisure, density, road congestion and parking problems, various forms of pollution, insecurity in some neighbourhoods, noise, stress, lack of green spaces, etc. Changing location to live better (or live differently) is more possible today than yesterday. Several sectors of economic activity are now dematerialized and can free themselves from the constraint of concentration. Furthermore, the digital revolution and progress in information and communication technologies allow remote working, which is the source of the boom in teleworking and the expansion of employment pools. In this context, there is a new appetite for life in the regions. There is renewed interest in towns and villages outside the major centres, even far from them. It promotes proximity to nature, a less polluted environment, access to larger and less expensive housing, a healthier lifestyle, conditions deemed better for raising a family, less traffic congestion, more community spirit, etc.
The pandemic is revealing in broad daylight and an accelerator of a trend that has already been present for nearly twenty years, and which is growing.
These new realities cannot be absent from the reflections surrounding the development of the National Policy for Territorial Development, Urban Planning and Architecture and the Strategy for Local and Regional Economic Development. We cannot build the Quebec of tomorrow with the models and tools of yesterday’s society. The signs of a changing world call for anticipation, invention and innovation.
Challenges
The flight of residents from large cities and the enthusiasm for the regions raise a number of questions which are as many challenges: 1. The exodus of residents from large urban centres, without being a phenomenon of exurbanization or demetropolisation, can it not be seen as a load shedding conducive to better governance? 2. Doesn’t the repopulation of the regions bring the prospect of an economic and social rebalancing between the big cities and the territories for more equality and social justice? 3. The influx of new residents in the regions obliges the host municipalities to offer housing, infrastructures and services that meet their needs. What resources are available to them? 4. What vision, what tools and what framework for local authorities in terms of urban planning and architecture to prevent small towns and rural areas from becoming the new El Dorado for speculators and urban developers, which would modify living environments and compromise their quality?