While Emmanuel Macron presents his wishes to the armies, Wednesday January 19, in the Oberhoffen camp, near Haguenau (Bas-Rhin), very close to the German border, the club of correspondents wonders how his European allies perceive their commitment alongside France in Mali, as part of Operation Takuba. Direction Berlin, Stockholm and Brussels.
Germany considers reducing its contingent
It will soon be nine years since Germany has been involved in Mali. On June 27, 2013, the Bundestag approved this German participation. We are then at the very beginning of MINUSMA, the UN stabilization mission in Mali. Germany was therefore at the side of Bamako and France from the start and since then the mandate of the armed forces has been renewed each year by the deputies. The current mandate ends soon, on May 31. This means that we are entering a period of uncertainty, in any case of discussions and debates.
Are the Germans planning to disengage? The subject may not yet be one of total withdrawal but rather of less significant deployment. The contingent of 1,100 German soldiers, mostly based in Gao in Mali, could be reduced. Its essential mission of training Malian soldiers still makes sense, according to Paris, which wants to try to convince its German partner that it is still relevant to stay.
What poses questions and problems for Berlin and the Europeans is to continue to train and equip Malian soldiers, some of whom have previously passed into the hands of the Russians and the Wagner group, this group of mercenaries affiliated with Moscow. But leaving also means leaving the field open, and this is probably not the majority point of view in Europe and Germany.
The Swedes disengage
In Sweden, we have passed the questioning stage. The government announced on January 14 its desire to end its participation in the anti-terrorist force Takuba, based in Mali. The French Minister of Defense, Jean-Yves Le Drian, affirms that this departure was planned, that it is not a surprise. If we stick to what was signed, it is indeed not a hasty departure. Sweden sent in February 2020 a force of 150 men, with helicopters, which was to stay for a year. And then a hundred Danish soldiers have just arrived in Mali, to replace them.
Nevertheless, it is still a disappointment for France. Sweden had the possibility of sending 100 additional men, an option which was not used. And above all, she decided not to renew this mandate. This is a blow as Stockholm was by far the biggest contributor to the Takuba force behind France.
Why this Swedish departure? Sweden renounces to support the military junta in power in Bamako, which constantly postpones the elections. But in the Swedish press one has especially the impression that it is the presence of the Russian mercenaries of the Wagner group which carried the decision. Sweden is currently in a phase of tension with Russia, which does not want the Nordic kingdom to join NATO. So a clash between Russians and Swedes, in Mali, would be the worst-case scenario for Stockholm. Besides, the Swedish disengagement might not stop there. The country is also wondering about its participation in MINUSMA, where it has 220 other soldiers.
In Brussels, the Wagner group worries
Germany and Sweden are not alone in questioning the continuation of the mandate of their troops, the European Union itself is now, as a whole, at odds with its commitment to the Sahel. The question was debated at length during the meetings of the Ministers of Defense and then of Foreign Affairs last week in Brest. The presence of mercenaries from the Wagner Group is a real foil for the 27, but Mali is only one theater among others where these Russian mercenaries collide with the EU.
The terrain in Mali is the latest collision with the Wagner Group for the Europeans and it has serious potential consequences because it is the region where the EU is most involved. The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, indicates that the Union wishes, for the moment, to maintain its military presence, that is to say the EUTM mission for training the Malian army, which has been present for eight years. But not at any price.
>>> In Mali and the Central African Republic, France’s political message is no longer getting through
It is especially in the Central African Republic that the Wagner group poses a problem beyond measure for the European Union. A European report two months ago showed the presence of around 2,600 mercenaries from this private company who also took charge of the training of certain Central African military units. There is also the intensification of the Russian presence “in almost all areas of government”, the conduct of disinformation campaigns and finally its economic involvement in customs, mining and more generally “the exploitation of natural resources”.
Worse still, a Central African battalion trained by the EU fell under the control of Russian mercenaries. The fear of Europeans is that the situation in the Central African Republic will reproduce itself in Mali. The confrontation with Wagner has also reached such a point that the Union has initiated unprecedented sanctions against the Russian group for the abuses committed throughout the world by its mercenaries. Other countries are expressly mentioned: Syria, Libya and Ukraine.