growth that will run out of steam in 2022?

In 2021, China maintained its position as the world’s growth leader. Indeed, there were record exports, up nearly 30%. But the year 2022 promises to be less glorious. First of all, the real estate sector is in crisis. It usually generates a quarter of the GDP. There are also epidemic rebounds. With its zero Covid policy, China does not hesitate to reconfine millions of people, thus bringing economic activity to a halt.

Consumption, for its part, has never returned to its pre-epidemic level. Leisure, transport, tourism and catering are lagging behind. “Everything is expensive, we buy less”, says a Chinese woman. “Wages are low, we don’t have the means”, continues a Chinese. The rise in the cost of living also explains the decline in the birth rate in China. The rate has never been so low since 1978. In 2022, Chinese growth should barely exceed 5%.