A surprising ceasefire agreement has been reached between the USA and Ukraine, initiated during talks in Saudi Arabia. The 30-day ceasefire proposal includes halting missile and drone strikes, though specific implementation details remain vague. The US will provide intelligence support and military aid to Ukraine. While humanitarian initiatives were discussed, no security guarantees for Ukraine were established, raising concerns about Russia’s intentions. Russia’s response is cautious, indicating they will evaluate the proposals while maintaining firm demands in negotiations.
Surprising Ceasefire Agreement Between the USA and Ukraine
In a surprising turn of events, the United States and Ukraine have reached a joint proposal for a ceasefire following escalating tensions between Presidents Trump and Zelensky. This initiative raises questions about its implications and how Russia will react.
Details of the Agreement in Saudi Arabia
On Tuesday, the US State Department, alongside the Ukrainian Presidential Office, announced an agreement made during discussions in Saudi Arabia. Ukraine has consented to a provisional ceasefire proposal from the US, which is set to last for 30 days. However, the specifics regarding the ceasefire’s implementation remain unclear. It is not specified whether it will encompass the entire front line or be limited to certain combat activities in designated areas. President Zelensky conveyed that the US has suggested halting missile, drone, and bombing strikes not only in the Black Sea but also across the entire front line.
This proposal effectively dismisses a previously suggested limited ceasefire by French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which would have been easier to monitor compared to one covering the expansive combat zone stretching approximately 900 kilometers.
According to the joint statement, the ceasefire can be extended after the initial 30 days if both parties agree, contingent upon approval and execution by the Russian Federation. Ukraine is in favor of this 30-day ceasefire agreement with Russia.
Additional Agreements in Jeddah
Another crucial aspect of the discussions was the commitment from the USA to provide immediate intelligence support to Ukraine and reinstate military aid. Access to US intelligence regarding Russian troop movements and potential airstrikes, particularly from satellite data, is vital for Ukraine’s defense and the safety of its civilians. Experts had previously noted that the lack of such intelligence significantly weakened Ukraine’s military capabilities. The Polish government has confirmed that the transfer of military supplies is already ongoing through their country.
Furthermore, the USA and Ukraine have agreed to expedite a comprehensive raw materials agreement that had been in the works for several weeks. This agreement faced delays due to a public dispute between Zelensky and Trump earlier in the year. Trump has sought access to Ukraine’s raw materials in exchange for military support.
The two nations also emphasized the significance of humanitarian initiatives, including the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilians, and the return of abducted Ukrainian children. However, there remain considerable doubts within Ukraine regarding Russia’s true intentions for peace.
What Remains Unresolved?
The announcement did not include any security guarantees for Ukraine, a demand that President Zelensky had previously made a precondition for negotiations with Russia. Initially, Ukraine had linked the raw materials agreement with security guarantees, but this demand appears to have been set aside after the incident at the White House. The joint statement implies that Ukraine has temporarily relinquished this requirement.
The US administration has indicated its reluctance to provide such guarantees, deeming it a matter for European nations. Moreover, a raw materials agreement is considered the most effective form of protection, as it would directly impact US interests in the event of renewed Russian aggression. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed this sentiment, acknowledging Ukraine’s need for security assurances.
In light of these developments, President Trump has mentioned a forthcoming conversation with Russian President Putin.
Russia’s Reaction
The Russian Presidential Office has responded cautiously to the ceasefire initiative, stating that they will thoroughly review the US-Ukrainian talks. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated that a response would be forthcoming after assessing the proposals. This stance contrasts with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s remarks, suggesting that Russia remains firm on its maximalist demands in peace negotiations, showing little willingness to compromise.
Experts like Andreas Heinemann-Grüder perceive the US-Ukrainian agreement as a setback for Russia. It had been anticipated that Trump would apply more pressure on Zelensky, potentially undermining him. Consequently, Russia appears to be seeking time to determine what the USA might offer for a ceasefire or what threats could be made.
Future Implications and US Leverage
The agreement stipulates that Russia will receive detailed information first. While a short-term call between Presidents Putin and Trump has not been ruled out, Trump has indicated he may speak with Putin later this week. Additionally, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff is set to visit Moscow for discussions with Putin, while US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz is scheduled to meet his Russian counterpart soon.
Despite hopes for a swift ceasefire, Russia is casting doubt on its willingness to negotiate. Following a series of amicable comments about Putin, Trump has also hinted at the possibility of increased sanctions against Russia. He is ‘seriously considering extensive banking sanctions, tariffs, and penalties against Russia until a ceasefire and a lasting peace agreement are established.’
While Russia has been able to adapt to many sanctions, economic analysts suggest that the country’s economic challenges, despite recent growth, may resurface, making it more susceptible to new sanctions. Sanctions affecting key exports such as liquefied gas and fertilizers could particularly strain the Russian economy, especially if oil prices decline further.
New military shipments to Ukraine could further complicate Russia’s military operations. However, Trump’s willingness to pursue this remains uncertain. A growing rapprochement between the USA and Russia would be a significant political win for Putin, who aims to create divisions between the USA and Europe. Moreover, it would be advantageous for Russia if the USA were to lift sanctions in exchange for a ceasefire and potential peace discussions.