France has experienced a persistent decline in birth rates since 2011, with 2024 seeing only 663,000 newborns, the lowest since World War II. This trend has raised concerns about economic and demographic implications, as the average fertility rate falls to 1.62 children per woman. Political reactions include President Macron’s call for ‘demographic rearmament.’ While some argue that fewer children could benefit the environment, experts warn that declining birth rates may strain economic systems and pension funding in the long run.
The Decline of Birth Rates in France: An Ongoing Trend
Since 2011, France has witnessed a continuous decline in its birth rates, facing a situation that has not been seen in decades. In 2024, the number of newborns fell to 663,000, marking a 2.2% decrease compared to the previous year, according to Insee data. This figure represents the lowest number of births since the aftermath of World War II. This downward trend has persisted over the years, with the exception of a minor resurgence in 2021 following the Covid-19 lockdowns.
Last year, the sharp decline in births sparked various political reactions, prompting President Emmanuel Macron to call for a ‘demographic rearmament’ to address this pressing issue.
Understanding the Implications of Lower Birth Rates
The concern surrounding birth rates in France dates back centuries. Hervé Le Bras, a research director at the École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS), points out that in the 19th century, France experienced the lowest fertility rates in Europe, fearing a population shortage that could hamper military strength during conflicts. This historical context has led to the establishment of natalist movements and a robust family policy aimed at encouraging higher birth rates.
Currently, the average fertility rate stands at 1.62 children per woman, with mainland France’s rate dipping to 1.59, the lowest in over a century. Experts warn that to maintain population levels, a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is essential.
Demographic decline is often viewed as a sign of national weakness. Catherine Scornet, a lecturer at the University of Aix-Marseille, explains that a shrinking population can evoke feelings of decline, despite the fact that demographic size alone does not guarantee a country’s diplomatic influence. For instance, while India leads the world in population, it does not necessarily translate into significant political power.
The economic implications of declining birth rates are also concerning. An aging population can lead to reduced economic dynamism, as highlighted by Scornet. Initially, fewer births might relieve public finances by lowering healthcare and education costs. However, as smaller generations enter the workforce, challenges may arise in funding pension systems reliant on contributions from active workers. Solutions such as increasing immigration may be required to bolster the labor force.
Interestingly, some argue that fewer children could benefit the planet. With the global population exceeding 8 billion, activists have raised concerns about the environmental impact of population growth, linking it to increased resource pressure and CO2 emissions. Yet, Le Bras cautions that environmental impact is more closely tied to consumption patterns. Families with fewer children may have more disposable income, potentially leading to higher CO2 emissions through purchases like vehicles and air travel.