2024 has been recorded as the hottest year since 1850, raising concerns over the effectiveness of climate commitments to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. As emissions continue to rise, particularly in major economies like India and China, the viability of achieving net-zero targets by mid-century is in jeopardy. Upcoming climate negotiations in Brazil will scrutinize new commitments from polluting nations amid growing resistance from political and corporate sectors against aggressive climate actions.
The Climate Crisis: A Year of Record Heat and Rising Emissions
The conclusion of the previous year brought a startling revelation for climate advocates: 2024 was marked as the hottest year on record since observations began in 1850. Concurrently, the frequency and severity of weather extremes—aggravated by climate change—have wreaked havoc across various regions. This scenario not only strains the Earth’s climate systems but also intensifies political discussions surrounding climate action.
Challenging the Paris Agreement’s Goals
The alarming heat benchmarks of recent years cast doubt on the increasingly urgent commitments made by politicians to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. As reported by the Copernicus European Earth and Weather Observation Program, 2024 is the first year that this critical threshold has been surpassed.
The Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree target is effectively “dead” for the time being. While this target pertains to long-term temperature increases rather than annual fluctuations, such nuances often get lost in public debates. Headlines dominate the narrative, leading to a stark realization: the goal to limit warming to 1.5 degrees is no longer achievable without immediate and drastic action.
“We simply delayed action for too long,” stated Zeke Hausfather, head of climate research at Stripe and a researcher at Berkeley Earth, in an interview with the British media. “We are rapidly crossing the 1.5-degree threshold, and this trend will persist until global emissions begin to decline.”
The outlook for achieving net-zero emissions remains uncertain. Major polluting nations have pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 or 2060, implying that unavoidable emissions would be offset by natural systems and technology. Nevertheless, emissions continue to climb. According to the Global Carbon Project, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion rose by approximately 0.8 percent last year.
As pressure mounts on governments to devise new climate strategies aimed at accelerating emissions reductions, the upcoming climate negotiations in November in Belém, Brazil, are expected to be critical. Activists and researchers will scrutinize the new commitments made by major polluters, holding them accountable for their past actions.
However, resistance against net-zero goals is emerging, not only from right-wing political factions gaining traction in Europe but also from the corporate sector, particularly in the USA. Companies are adjusting to the climate-skeptical policies of the Trump administration, leading to a decline in commitment to net-zero pledges. Recently, the six largest American banks withdrew from the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, signaling a retreat from previously established sustainability goals.
For climate activists, the focus will remain on the primary culprits of emissions: the USA, China, the EU, India, and middle-income and emerging economies, including Brazil and Indonesia. The emissions landscape of these nations presents a potential flashpoint in global geopolitics, as recent data indicates a slight uptick in CO2 emissions in China and a 4.6 percent increase in India, contrasting with decreases in Europe and the USA.
This trend has prompted older industrialized nations to demand that emerging economic powers take the lead in emission reductions. The power struggle was evident at the last climate conference in Baku, and such tensions are expected to escalate further in the coming year.
The root cause of rising emissions lies in economic growth. In India, a surge in electricity demand—primarily met by expanding coal-fired power plants—has been noted. Robbie Andrew, a senior researcher at the Norwegian institute Cicero, emphasizes that most new electricity requirements are derived from coal, with only a minor portion sourced from renewable energies.
In China, coal generation has also increased, despite record-breaking developments in renewable energy. This rise is attributed to heightened electricity demand from both the tech sector and consumer consumption. As a result, a transition away from coal remains distant, with the International Energy Agency projecting that coal consumption could hit a new record of 8.74 billion tons in 2024.
Coal is not the only fossil fuel that appears resilient in the face of rising investments in renewables and a renewed interest in nuclear energy. The demand for electricity is on the rise, and fossil fuels are expected to continue playing a crucial role in fulfilling this increasing demand, even as the share of renewables grows.
Natural gas and oil proponents are anticipating renewed vigor under the Trump administration, which has already promised to reverse Biden-era offshore drilling bans. Meanwhile, competition for green technologies and the necessary raw materials is intensifying, with China leading the way in renewable energy investments and dominating the supply chains for critical technologies like batteries and solar panels.
Solar energy is experiencing a significant boom, with analysts from BloombergNEF noting a 35 percent market growth last year, driven by lower module prices. However, this expansion has also led to challenges for manufacturers competing for market share. The outlook for the upcoming year remains slightly dim, with expectations that while solar energy will remain the primary source of new electricity generation, the growth rate will slow to 11 percent.
The increasing reliance on solar energy is straining existing energy infrastructure, necessitating significant investments in grid expansion and energy storage solutions. This year, discussions in international climate policy will center on the trillions of dollars required to facilitate a global energy transition. According to the Paris Agreement, wealthy nations are expected to mobilize a minimum of $300 billion annually for developing countries starting this year, as agreed upon in Baku.