Amos Hochstein continues his diplomatic efforts in Lebanon, monitoring the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which has faced challenges since its initiation on November 27. Despite some Israeli withdrawals, tensions remain high, with both sides issuing warnings about potential renewed conflict. The upcoming January 27 deadline for troop withdrawals looms, as Lebanon approaches a presidential election, raising questions about the future political landscape and the ability to maintain stability amidst ongoing hostilities.
Amos Hochstein’s Ongoing Diplomatic Efforts
Amos Hochstein stands out as a dedicated diplomat within the White House, having made numerous trips to Israel and Lebanon to broker a peace agreement between Israel and the Lebanese Shiite militia, Hezbollah. His perseverance bore fruit on November 27, when a ceasefire came into effect. Although the agreement has faced challenges, it has managed to hold up to this point.
Current Situation in Beirut
Now, Hochstein has returned to Beirut to evaluate the current situation, likely for the final time before a new administration takes office in Washington. On Monday evening, he expressed optimism about the ceasefire’s implementation, stating, “Although the process is not without its hurdles, it is ultimately successful.” He proudly announced that the Israeli army had completed its withdrawal from the coastal city of Nakoura on the same day, signaling that further withdrawals are expected until Israel is fully out of the area.
However, Hochstein refrained from providing a specific timeline for these withdrawals, nor did he address numerous reports suggesting that Israel may contemplate extending its military presence by 30 days or more. According to the November agreement, both Israel and Hezbollah were to withdraw from southern Lebanon within a 60-day timeframe, allowing the Lebanese army to take control. As of now, there are few signs that these conditions will be met by the January 27 deadline.
On the ground, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have only managed to pull back from Nakoura, as well as two other locations, Khiam and Chamaa. They still maintain a presence in over sixty villages along the border. Israeli security officials claim that the Lebanese army, which is currently understaffed, is neither willing nor able to enforce Hezbollah’s disarmament and withdrawal. Around 160,000 Lebanese citizens continue to await their return to their homes.
Additionally, Hezbollah appears reluctant to vacate its strongholds in southern Lebanon. Israel has accused the militia of violating the ceasefire by allegedly preparing rockets for launch and transporting ammunition. Conversely, the Lebanese government reported to the UN Security Council last week that Israel has conducted over 816 attacks in southern Lebanon since the ceasefire’s inception, labeling these actions as violations of the agreement. Israel defends its actions as necessary for self-defense, asserting its right to respond to immediate threats, claiming it has killed 44 Hezbollah fighters in the first month of the ceasefire.
Potential for Renewed Conflict
Both Israel and Hezbollah have recently issued warnings about the possibility of resuming hostilities. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz indicated that Israel would have to take action if Hezbollah doesn’t retreat beyond the Litani River. Meanwhile, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem hinted that the group might lose its patience before the sixty-day deadline, stating, “Our restraint may soon wear thin.”
Despite the tensions, both parties are believed to have a vested interest in preserving the ceasefire. Hezbollah has suffered significant losses in personnel and military strength due to the ongoing conflict. Should fighting resume, the militia risks facing total defeat. For Israel, the priority is to facilitate the return of approximately 60,000 individuals who were evacuated from northern regions due to Hezbollah’s rocket fire.
As the January 27 withdrawal deadline approaches, Hochstein’s position becomes even more critical as he aims to foster stability in the region before the upcoming political transition. His visit is also timely as Lebanon’s parliament is set to elect a new president on January 9—an endeavor that has stalled multiple times over the past two years, largely due to Hezbollah’s obstruction.
The United States has expressed support for Lebanese army chief Joseph Aoun as a preferred candidate, with backing from Saudi Arabia and France. Surprisingly, Hezbollah announced that it would not oppose Aoun’s candidacy. If Aoun is elected, it could mark a significant step toward resolving Lebanon’s political impasse. However, whether he can effectively manage Hezbollah and avert a new conflict remains uncertain.