Jihadists in Syria have unexpectedly launched a significant offensive against Assad’s forces, capitalizing on the distractions faced by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. The rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which evolved from the Al-Nusra Front, has gained ground with apparent support from Turkey. Assad’s regime, caught off guard and reliant on outside help, struggles to maintain control amidst increasing rebel momentum and the shifting geopolitical landscape, raising concerns of a larger uprising.
The Unexpected Surge of Jihadists in Syria
According to Middle East expert Guido Steinberg, the jihadists in Syria have taken advantage of the vulnerabilities of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, leading to a surprising offensive against Assad’s forces. This sudden resurgence of Islamist rebels has taken Aleppo in northwestern Syria by storm. But how did this happen so rapidly?
The Reasons Behind the Rebel Success
Steinberg notes that the recent offensive caught many off guard, including himself. There was little anticipation that the Syrian rebels could mount a significant offensive once again. The success of this operation stems from the Syrian regime’s lack of foresight regarding possible attacks. The backing of Assad’s military—primarily from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—is currently diverted to other engagements.
It appears that Bashar al-Assad was unprepared for this aggressive move. Despite having a well-trained army capable of defending a city like Aleppo, the rapid takeover indicates that the regime was unaware of developments in rebel-controlled areas. Previously, the Assad regime had only managed to reclaim Aleppo in December 2016 with substantial support from its allies, but with those allies now preoccupied—Russia with its war in Ukraine, Iran with its struggles against Israel, and Hezbollah reeling from recent Israeli attacks—the rebels have seized the opportunity to strike.
The rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has gained notable ground, is a transformed entity that emerged from the Al-Nusra Front in 2017. While HTS presents itself as a more moderate group, it retains many jihadist elements, including foreign fighters, and has the potential to impose a reign of terror on local populations, particularly in areas with significant Christian and Kurdish communities.
Reports suggest that the HTS has coordinated its offensive with Turkey, which has held a protective stance over the Idlib region since 2017. The presence of Turkish military personnel has been significant, and without Turkey’s support, this offensive might not have been feasible. The escalation of violence reflects the deteriorating position of Assad’s regime, with the potential for a larger uprising against him looming on the horizon.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has strategic interests in undermining Assad, particularly regarding the return of Syrian refugees from Turkey. Negotiations to facilitate this have stalled, leading Erdogan to intensify pressure on Damascus. There are also suspicions that Turkey seeks to establish greater control over northern and eastern Syria, particularly to counter the Kurdish autonomy in the region.
As the situation unfolds, Assad’s reliance on Russian support remains critical, but the dynamics have shifted. Recent Russian airstrikes indicate ongoing support for Assad, yet the ground troops are primarily supplied by Iranian forces and allied militias, which may be strained by the war in Israel. The Iranian government has assured continued support, but the effectiveness of these reinforcements remains to be seen.
While it is conceivable that the recent advances by rebels could be halted, the logistical challenges of maintaining a prolonged campaign in a vast urban landscape like Aleppo may impede their efforts. The rebels possess a considerable number of motivated fighters, which complicates any attempts by Assad’s forces to reclaim territory, especially in neighborhoods inhabited by minority groups and regime supporters.
The ongoing conflict in Syria continues to evolve, with shifting alliances and strategies that will undoubtedly shape the future of the region.