Marine Le Pen is urging Prime Minister Michel Barnier to make last-minute concessions to prevent a possible censure related to the Social Security budget. As the deadline approaches, concerns grow over contentious issues such as pension cuts and employer contribution reductions. Without a parliamentary majority, Barnier may invoke a constitutional provision to bypass voting, risking a government crisis if the left and National Rally unite against him. The Senate is currently reviewing budget proposals aimed at significant spending cuts to improve public finances.
Marine Le Pen Calls for Last-Minute Concessions
The National Rally’s leader, Marine Le Pen, urged Prime Minister Michel Barnier on Saturday to consider last-minute concessions to avert a censure she believes is ‘not inevitable.’ This appeal comes as the deadline approaches for the Social Security budget’s return to the National Assembly.
Is the government prepared to make new gestures? Public Accounts Minister Laurent Saint-Martin, in an interview with Le Parisien, cautioned about the implications of a censure, emphasizing that the proposed text resulted from a compromise between senators and deputies. He stated, ‘Censuring this text would mean censoring a democratic agreement.’
As the pressure mounts for Barnier starting Monday, the draft law concerning the financing of social security (PLFSS) is laden with contentious issues for the opposition, including reductions in employer contributions, partial de-indexation of pensions, and cuts to drug reimbursements.
Potential Government Crisis
Without a parliamentary majority, Prime Minister Barnier may resort to invoking article ‘49.3’ of the Constitution, which allows for a text’s approval without a vote. However, this move could trigger the first censure motion of the autumn, potentially reviewed as early as Wednesday.
If the left and the National Rally join forces, the government’s stability could be compromised. This scenario would mark the first governmental collapse since Georges Pompidou’s administration in 1962.
‘Censure is not inevitable. It is sufficient for Mr. Barnier to agree to negotiate,’ Le Pen remarked in her interview with La Tribune Dimanche. She expressed frustration that the RN, the largest group in the National Assembly, was not consulted earlier in the budget drafting process.
After her first meeting at Matignon last Monday, Le Pen stated that she remains ‘constructive’ but cautioned that if Barnier declines to negotiate, the responsibility for triggering a censure would rest with him.
She noted that she has only incorporated a small portion of her party’s counter-budget proposals into the discussions, emphasizing the need to eliminate certain taxes while ensuring new revenue streams to avoid exacerbating the deficit.
Despite a previous agreement between deputies and senators regarding the Social Security budget, the government still has the opportunity to amend the text until the final moments to address the opposition’s concerns.
Meanwhile, Saint-Martin expressed concerns that a government collapse could lead to increased interest rates on debt, jeopardizing the state’s ability to safeguard purchasing power. Following S&P’s reaffirmation of France’s credit rating, Economy Minister Antoine Armand urged all parties to take responsibility to prevent a political crisis from spiraling into a financial one.
As the Senate wraps up its assessment of the ‘revenue’ portion of the 2025 state budget this weekend, it has maintained a constructive yet critical stance toward the government. This ongoing evaluation includes three key budget texts: the state budget for 2025, the social security budget, and the draft law for the current year’s financial management.
The Senate, a central component of ‘barnierism’ and backed by a right-centrist alliance supporting the government, is expected to vote on the entire ‘revenue’ segment of the budget, a decision that appears straightforward.
Next, the Senate will focus on various thematic budget missions, which aim to implement significant spending cuts across several areas, including State Medical Aid for undocumented immigrants, teacher training, the ‘Cultural Pass,’ and the Universal National Service.
Following a week of debates, senators have generally endorsed the government’s primary measures, which target 60 billion euros in savings to enhance public finances and reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP by 2025, down from 6.1% in 2024.
Among the proposed measures are a temporary tax on high incomes, an exceptional contribution from large corporations, increased car taxes, heightened taxation on plane tickets, and gas boilers. These initiatives have smoothly passed through the Senate’s review process.
Regarding the anticipated increase in electricity taxes, expected to generate over three billion euros, Barnier had to backtrack on raising it beyond pre-energy crisis levels.
In a predictable move, the Senate, often referred to as the chamber of territories, has also made several concessions to local authorities, amounting to over one billion euros.