Concerns have emerged over the potential impact of a censure motion on the Social Security budget, with former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne warning that it could deactivate the Vitale card and halt pensions. Michel Barnier is seeking to garner support against a censure vote while preparing for the 2025 budget. Emergency procedures are in place for the finance bill, but the Social Security budget lacks similar protocols, although legal frameworks exist to ensure pension continuity despite potential delays.
Concerns Over Social Security Budget and Censure Motion
Former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has raised alarms regarding the implications of a potential censure motion on the Social Security budget. She emphasized that if such a motion were successful, it could result in the Vitale card being rendered inactive and pensions being halted starting January 1. This warning comes in the wake of her predecessor Michel Barnier’s approval of the 2024 budget using article 49.3, a constitutional provision that allows legislation to pass without a parliamentary vote. Borne’s statements highlight the significant risks that could accompany a censure motion against Barnier if he opts to utilize article 49.3 for the 2025 budget. Mathilde Panot, the leader of the LFI group in the National Assembly, echoed this sentiment, stating that they are prepared to propose an alternative budget at any time.
Government’s Response and Emergency Procedures
In a bid to avert a crisis, Michel Barnier met with opposition leaders on November 25, as the finance bill was introduced in the Senate. His goal is to persuade deputies against voting for censure if article 49.3 is invoked. The RN party remains noncommittal, adding to the tension. In an interview with Le Parisien, government spokesperson Maud Bregeon warned of a potential Greek-style financial scenario if the budget is not approved, questioning who would want to gift the French people a 2025 with a deficit exceeding 7% and rising interest rates.
There are specific emergency procedures outlined to ensure the timely publication of the finance bill by December 31, 2024. Stéphanie Damarey, a public financial law expert, identifies three critical procedures: the first allows the government to request Parliament to adopt the revenue portion of the finance law as a “partial bill,” which can be addressed separately from expenditures later. The second procedure entails a “special bill” that enables the government to continue tax collection, which is likely to be supported by the elected officials eager to maintain national stability. Lastly, the law also allows for the adoption of the finance bill through ordinance, an option that has never been executed in the Fifth Republic but remains available to the government.
As for the Social Security budget, it doesn’t have the same emergency protocols in place. However, the finance law authorizes all forms of tax collection, including those for Social Security. The government retains the capability to act via ordinance for Social Security financing laws, ensuring continuity in funding. Thus, despite Borne’s assertions, experts clarify that the legal framework offers mechanisms to prevent disruptions in pension payments even if the budget faces delays.