The article discusses the impact of Georgia’s recent parliamentary elections on its EU aspirations. Despite strong public support for EU membership, the ruling pro-Moscow party, Georgian Dream, secured another term amid allegations of electoral fraud and intimidation. This setback compromises Georgia’s pro-Western ambitions, as the government’s anti-Western rhetoric discredits it in Brussels. The outcome signifies a geopolitical win for Russia, threatening Georgia’s democratic future and EU integration. The situation calls for a more strategic EU response.
Located in the South Caucasus, Georgia may seem distant from Europe, but the nation’s political turmoil has significant implications for the continent. A substantial portion of the Georgian population supports EU membership, a desire that was acknowledged when the EU granted candidate status in 2023. Nevertheless, this year has seen severe setbacks for the pro-Western factions in Georgia. In May, mass protests failed to block a controversial “foreign agents” law reflective of an authoritarian approach. Recently, Saturday’s parliamentary elections dealt a further blow to these forces.
The ruling party, Georgian Dream, led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, has retained power for another four years through what many consider an unfair election process. Official results state that the party garnered 54% of the votes, while the four pro-Western opposition lists received only 38%. These results seem dubious, particularly since independent polls had previously indicated the party would secure around 35%. Moreover, the ruling party claims to have improved its performance compared to four years ago, despite an increasing number of citizens feeling alienated by its authoritarian policies.
Intimidation and Misinformation
The allegations of widespread electoral fraud are difficult to substantiate, but numerous irregularities have been documented. A prevailing atmosphere of fear and aggressive propaganda characterized the election cycle. The ruling party effectively adopted tactics reminiscent of the Kremlin, with Ivanishvili alleging that Western nations aimed to embroil Georgia in a conflict with Russia, labeling pro-Western politicians as “enemies of the people.”
As the country’s wealthiest individual, Ivanishvili pushed for a three-quarters majority in parliament, intending to modify the constitution and effectively eliminate major opposition parties from the political landscape. Even though he did not achieve this supermajority, the implications are dire. The European Union is now likely to pause Georgia’s membership application process.
This election outcome is particularly unfortunate, as a recent survey indicated that 70% of the population favored EU membership, with only 10% opposed. The Tbilisi government has derailed the nation’s EU aspirations through disinformation and election manipulation, creating a facade of support for Western integration while acting contrary to those claims. A government that accuses its Western allies of ulterior motives and attempts to consolidate political power has become discredited in the eyes of the EU, which has already distanced itself from Tbilisi in recent months.
A Win for the Kremlin
In this geopolitical landscape, Russia emerges as a winner, drawing Georgia, historically a pro-European state, back into its sphere of influence. Ivanishvili, who risks losing power with further democratization, serves as a strategic ally for the Kremlin, which seeks to establish a network of nations under Moscow’s control. This strategy has been evident in Ukraine, and Russia has recently gained traction in Moldova through misinformation campaigns surrounding the EU referendum.
The EU must navigate this intricate geopolitical scenario with greater skill and foresight. Although Georgia has not yet fallen completely under Kremlin control as it did during the Soviet era, the recent developments represent a significant setback for those who envision a democratic future for the nation. October 26 marks a troubling day for such aspirations.