The electoral commission in Georgia has announced the ruling Georgian Dream party’s victory in parliamentary elections, securing 54.8% of the votes. The opposition, challenged by allegations of electoral manipulation and voter intimidation, plans to protest the results, seeking support from the EU and USA. While voter turnout was nearly 60%, opposition alliances reject the official counts, and former President Salome Zurabishvili claims a win for her party. Tensions rise as the government prepares for potential protests.
The electoral commission has announced the ruling party’s victory in Georgia’s parliamentary elections, while the opposition is contemplating protests and seeking backing from the EU and the USA.
The night in Georgia unfolded without incident. However, the exuberance following the ruling Georgian Dream party’s triumph was swiftly subdued after the Central Election Commission released the initial preliminary results.
As the capital Tbilisi enjoys a sunny and laid-back Sunday, discussions among locals reveal undercurrents of tension, exacerbated by the Georgian Dream’s campaign posters filled with divisive rhetoric.
The electoral commission has finished counting over 99 percent of the ballots, showing that Georgian Dream has secured 54.8 percent of the votes, granting the party a comfortable majority for a fourth consecutive term, although falling short of the two-thirds majority targeted by its founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili.
Several pro-European opposition coalitions reject these results and have vowed to stage protests.
High Voter Turnout
Voter turnout was nearly 60 percent, the highest since the 2012 elections when Georgian Dream ousted the United National Movement (UNM) led by former President Mikhail Saakashvili.
The liberal opposition interpreted this turnout as a sign of public disillusionment with Georgian Dream and a desire for change. However, allegations of extensive pre-election manipulation cast doubt on these aspirations.
As Georgia heads towards electing a new parliament on Saturday, it faces a pivotal moment.
Pressure and Manipulation
The ruling party has revised electoral laws, allowing it to significantly influence the composition of the Central Election Commission through its majority in parliament.
The recent election day was the climax of a prolonged campaign marked by intimidation towards the liberal opposition and fear-mongering narratives suggesting that a pro-European victory would lead to war with Russia and a loss of sovereignty.
International and local observers reported widespread manipulation at numerous polling stations, particularly in regions with significant ethnic minority populations, where the results heavily favored Georgian Dream.
The elections highlighted an ongoing clash between pro-European and pro-Russian factions in the country.
International election monitors raised alarms about various irregularities, including voter intimidation, coercion of officials, violence against observers, bribery, double voting, and ballot tampering, as outlined by the OSCE mission.
They urged investigations into these issues and called for further democratic reforms. Nonetheless, mission leader Pascal Allizard commended the overall “democratic vitality” observed in the South Caucasus republic despite challenges, noting that the election was well organized. Other observers also recognized the strong role of civil society in monitoring the election process.
Opposition’s Dissent
With no independent polling data available and widespread dissatisfaction with politics, gauging the opposition parties’ real performance proved challenging. Many party leaders put aside their differences to form alliances, navigating the five percent electoral threshold.
The former ruling UNM party garnered about ten percent of the vote alongside allies, while another UNM-affiliated coalition also achieved ten percent. A neutral alliance between the ruling party and UNM secured nearly nine percent, and former Prime Minister Giorgi Gacharia’s party received 7.75 percent. Gacharia had previously expressed confidence in achieving around 20 percent.
In the wake of the official figures, Gacharia and other liberal opposition representatives declared the results invalid, referencing polls from opposition-affiliated organizations and widespread electoral fraud.
The question remains: who truly triumphed in this significant election for Georgia?
Absence of a Clear Majority
President Salome Zurabishvili, aligned with the opposition, claimed on social media shortly after polls closed that “European Georgia wins with 52%, despite electoral rigging attempts and the absence of diaspora votes.” Zurabishvili had initiated a “Charter for Georgia,” aimed at forming a technocratic transitional government to steer Georgia back towards EU alignment and organize new elections by fall 2025. However, no consensus on a prime ministerial candidate was reached prior to the elections.
Even if all opposition factions manage to unite, the official results project their combined representation at only 37% in parliament, in stark contrast to Georgian Dream’s 54.8%.
Anticipating Western Response
The opposition is now pivoting towards protest strategies in response to the election results. Gacharia mentioned in a Sunday briefing their intent to utilize “intelligent forms of protest aimed at protecting