In Tustin, California, Sandra Robbie and Steve Lawrence attract attention as they promote merchandise for presidential candidates Trump and Harris-Walz. Amidst a politically divided Orange County, both Republicans and Democrats vie for critical congressional seats in a shifting battleground. As demographics change, with increasing diversity and education levels, the historical conservative stronghold faces challenges. Vietnamese Americans, historically aligned with Republicans, show growing indifference toward voting, potentially benefiting Democrats in the upcoming elections.
The warm Californian sun filters through palm leaves, illuminating the bustling sidewalk where Sandra Robbie and Steve Lawrence stand together near the main thoroughfare of Tustin, located in the vibrant heart of Orange County. The duo certainly attracts attention; as drivers pass by, some honk, while others gesture with thumbs-up or a middle finger.
“The great thing is that you can never quite tell who supports which candidate,” Lawrence remarks. With a round belly, clean-shaven face, and neatly combed gray hair, he and Robbie are promoting the presidential campaigns of “Trump 2024” and “Harris-Walz” by displaying eye-catching posters and selling campaign merchandise.
According to the 64-year-old Lawrence, the red “Make America Great Again” caps are flying off the shelves. “People really want to wear what Trump endorses.” Since his initial controversies, flags emblazoned with “Fuck your feelings” have also become popular. “Many supporters were discreet fans before; now they want to proudly show their allegiance.”
Once employed in woodworking, Lawrence is now supplementing his retirement income with campaign merchandise sales. Despite their political differences, he and Robbie maintain a friendship, sharing meals routinely. “Sometimes I bring her pizza, and she treats me to rugelach,” he laughs, referring to Jewish pastries.
Sandra Robbie, 66, showcases her merchandise that includes Harris pins, tropical tank tops, and baseball caps featuring Converse sneakers—essential elements of the Democratic candidate’s brand. She’s currently selling a colorful “Kamala” T-shirt to an enthusiastic older customer, who beams, “It’s wonderful that Democrats are so visible here in Orange County now. That wouldn’t have been possible before!”
A Critical Battleground for Republicans
This election year, Orange County stands out as a fiercely contested battleground. The outcome of the presidential election significantly hinges on which party secures dominance in the Senate and the House of Representatives. The latter body undertakes crucial responsibilities such as governmental oversight and impeachment procedures. Notably, if both candidates receive an equal number of electoral votes—a scenario last seen in 1800—the House will act as the deciding force in the presidential election.
Currently, Republicans maintain a slim lead with eight more seats than Democrats in the expansive Chamber of Congress. Mark Baldassare from the Public Policy Institute of California highlights that in most districts, the winning party is already apparent. Only a small number of races will critically influence the balance of power in the House, with California and New York being pivotal states.
Within Orange County—a Southern Californian district with over three million residents—four congressional seats are deemed “highly contested,” according to non-partisan assessments from the Cook Political Report. Out of these, two seats are held by Republicans, one by a Democrat, and one remains open due to the incumbent not seeking reelection. To retain their majority, Republicans must safeguard or increase their presence in this district, as “the race for the White House runs through California,” per Cook’s analysis.
Once a Conservative Powerhouse
The mere contestation of these seats marks a significant shift for what has long been a bastion of conservatism. Home to Richard Nixon and celebrated by figures like Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan, Orange County has traditionally been synonymous with conservative ideals. “When the good Republicans are nearing the end of their lives, they head to Orange County,” Reagan once quipped. Even as the rest of California leaned left in the late 1990s, this region retained its conservative identity.
However, in 2016, a notable change occurred as Hillary Clinton became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Orange County in eighty years. This transformation accelerated in 2018 when Democrats swept all congressional seats in the area. Rather than resigning to defeat, Republicans mounted a vigorous counterattack in 2020, reclaiming two seats. Since then, Orange County has become emblematic of a “swing county”—one characterized by highly competitive and uncertain electoral outcomes.
Mark Baldassare emphasizes that Orange County serves as a bellwether for national political trends. “It’s vital for both parties to pay attention to the shifts happening in Southern California and the evolving electorate there.”
Grassroots Engagement Efforts
To fully grasp the dynamics at play in this former conservative stronghold, one must take a drive. An hour south of liberal Los Angeles, along the Pacific coast, the atmosphere shifts dramatically upon crossing the San Gabriel River. Stars and stripes abound, and Trump flags adorn manicured lawns while luxury vehicles zip by.
This section of California is predominantly affluent, conservative, and white, with Orange County being