Hiroshi Nakanishi discusses Japan’s shift from pacifism towards strengthening its defense capabilities amid perceived threats from North Korea and China, particularly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With a new security policy in place, public support for the Self-Defense Forces is growing. Nakanishi highlights Japan’s cautious approach to China, emphasizing its economic ties despite territorial concerns. He also notes the challenges of forming a unified defense alliance in the Asia-Pacific region, amidst calls for better coordination with allies like the US and South Korea.
Mr. Nakanishi, Japan is enhancing its self-defense capabilities by constructing aircraft carriers and pursuing long-range ballistic missiles, despite its constitution emphasizing pacifism. How can this be reconciled?
Hiroshi Nakanishi: The growing perception among the Japanese public of threats posed by North Korea’s missile and nuclear capabilities, along with China’s military expansion, plays a crucial role. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has intensified these feelings, leading to broader acceptance of the need for Japan to bolster its defense. In late 2022, the Japanese government implemented a new defense and security policy partially in response to the Ukraine conflict. There appears to be diminishing resistance to the Self-Defense Forces and the U.S. alliance compared to earlier periods.
Was the situation in Ukraine the primary catalyst for Japan’s shift away from pacifism?
Japan has likely felt the shock of the Russian invasion more than any other nation outside of Europe. Geographically, Russia is a neighbor, and longstanding territorial disputes concerning islands in northern Japan further complicate relations. Historically, the Japanese have never viewed Russia as a friendly nation. The images of war crimes and the large-scale invasion have only strengthened this negative view, leading to extensive media coverage and robust public interest in the conflict. Prime Minister Kishida has successfully conveyed that similar events could unfold tomorrow in East Asia.
What did he imply by that?
Kishida warned that China might also resort to military force to settle territorial disputes—potentially concerning Taiwan, regions in the South China Sea, or the Senkaku Islands, which Japan administers.
So, is China a risk for Japan?
Officially, Japan does not classify China as a direct threat; instead, it refers to China as a challenge in its updated security strategy. This distinction exists because China is integral to Japan’s economy and a significant player in the Asia-Pacific. Japan aims to avoid the rigid friend/foe dichotomy of the Cold War era, viewing China both as a potential partner in cooperation and a competitor. Nevertheless, certain developments, like territorial disputes and economic espionage, raise concerns. The major worry is China’s willingness to unilaterally alter the status of Taiwan if deemed necessary.
How likely is a Chinese annexation of Taiwan, and what would that signify for the status quo? Many experts in Japan who specialize in China believe that military conflict over Taiwan is not highly probable. They argue that Xi Jinping primarily focuses on maintaining the Communist Party’s dominance in China, making war with the U.S., Japan, or other nations a considerable gamble. However, those analyzing international relations and defense policy often prepare for worst-case scenarios, especially since China has not ruled out military options regarding Taiwan. Some speculate that China might attempt to assert control over Taiwan around 2027.
What are your thoughts?
I tend to align with the China experts, considering China’s historical context and risk-averse nature. Thus, I believe there is a low likelihood of military force being employed. However, actions taken by the U.S. or Taiwan could alter my perspective.
If the worst-case scenario unfolds, what would be the implications for Japan?
Japan would likely have to involve itself, as the country perceives the U.S. would defend Taiwan. Consequently, Japan would support the U.S. while providing non-military aid to Taiwan, rendering Japan and China adversarial, potentially harming both economic ties and personal interactions. Although the Japanese government has yet to outline a detailed plan for this scenario, officials and experts are aware of the need for consideration.
With China, Russia, and North Korea collaborating more closely, how is Japan monitoring this dynamic?
Individually, Russia and North Korea might not pose significant threats. Experts argue that Russia does not stand as a substantial military threat in the Pacific that could inflict considerable damage on Japan or U.S. forces there. Japan essentially relies on U.S. deterrence in this arena. North Korean missiles and nuclear capabilities present a serious threat; however, geography suggests that an aggressive action would likely provoke South Korea. South Korea’s military capacity is a critical factor in this scenario. What would be truly alarming is if these nations coordinated their actions together, such as limiting the operational capabilities of Japanese or U.S. forces in the East China Sea while China pursued its objectives in Taiwan.
How is Japan positioning itself in anticipation of such scenarios?
In response to threats from North Korea and Russia, Japan’s strategy is increasingly focused on strengthening alliances and fostering collaboration. Addressing the previously mentioned scenario would certainly involve improved coordination with allies and friendly nations like the U.S. and South Korea.
Could this lead to the formation of a defense alliance in the Pacific akin