Elon Musk unveiled Tesla’s concept for a new robotaxi, a two-seater with no steering wheel or pedals, priced below $30,000, set to launch in 2026. However, experts warn that the plans are fraught with risks, doubting the feasibility of autonomous driving without additional sensors like lidar. Industry insiders believe Tesla is behind competitors like Waymo, which already operates extensively in the U.S. and China. Concerns about the declining demand for electric vehicles further complicate Musk’s ambitious vision.
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, unveiled an ambitious new concept for a robotaxi, but experts are expressing skepticism regarding its feasibility and cost. Industry analyst Schwope regards the prospect of fully autonomous driving with the Cybercab as unlikely in the short term.
The proposed design for Tesla’s robotaxi features a two-seater coupe equipped with gullwing doors, devoid of a steering wheel or pedals. According to Musk, production is expected to commence in 2026, with a projected price tag of under $30,000. However, details about the market launch remain vague.
Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, a noted industry expert, criticizes the announcement as lacking substance and fraught with risks. “I can’t see investors having much faith in this,” he commented. While the $30,000 price point has attracted attention, he considers it dubious. Fellow expert Frank Schwope from the Fachhochschule des Mittelstands in Hanover predicts that the final cost, including taxes and basic features, could exceed $40,000.
In contrast to competitors, Tesla’s self-driving capabilities rely exclusively on cameras and forgo additional sensors like radar and lidar, incorporating artificial intelligence instead. This approach may be more cost-effective, but Dudenhöffer views it as perilous. The shortcomings of Tesla’s cameras, as evidenced by previous incidents with its Autopilot system, raise concerns about visibility issues during adverse weather conditions. Dudenhöffer sees the $30,000 Cybercab as a risky bet that is unlikely to succeed.
Robotaxis Are Operational in Other Countries
Musk envisions a shift from Tesla being merely a car manufacturer to becoming a robotics company, with plans for a fleet of autonomous Tesla taxis accessible via an app. Dudenhöffer notes that robotaxis have already been in extensive use across China for three years. By the time Tesla enters this market, established services will dominate in major Chinese cities. “Musk has missed the boat in China,” Dudenhöffer asserts.
The outlook for the domestic market isn’t optimistic either. Waymo, a sibling company to Google, successfully conducts over 100,000 passenger trips weekly in four U.S. cities without requiring a human driver. In particular, Waymo’s retrofitted Jaguar electric vehicles have become a common sight in San Francisco. Dudenhöffer assesses Waymo to be a decade ahead of Tesla, and he doubts Musk can close that gap quickly.
As for Europe, Dudenhöffer describes it as a fragmented and complex market. The historical development of cities and roadways complicates AI-driven vehicle navigation, making it a challenging environment for autonomous driving.
Historically, Musk has been known for overestimating timelines. Currently, Tesla’s ‘Autopilot’ and ‘Full Self Driving’ systems function primarily as driver assistance features, necessitating active driver oversight. The company has yet to receive regulatory approval for fully autonomous operation.
Slowing Demand for Electric Vehicles
The concept of a self-driving cab was initially presented by Musk in 2016. Schwope believes that realizing true autonomy with the Cybercab will likely remain elusive in the near future. “Achieving Level 5 autonomous driving permits is improbable as long as Tesla continues to depend solely on camera-based systems,” he said.
Musk’s plans for the robotaxi also seem to be a reaction to cooling demand for electric vehicles. The company may experience its first sales decline this year, attributed to an aging fleet and high interest rates discouraging potential buyers.
Analysts and investors had anticipated an announcement of a viable autonomous vehicle along with a definitive launch timeline. Since the initial April reveal of the robotaxi, Tesla’s stock has seen a 52% increase. Dudenhöffer cautioned that investors should not be easily swayed by Musk’s Hollywood-style presentations: “Those who arrive too late often pay the price, and in this case, it may be the investors.”