New York Times Poll | Some black voters are turning their backs on Democrats

Democrats are on track to win a majority of the black electorate. But support is not there as much as in previous elections, a poll reveals.

Vice President Kamala Harris has improved the Democratic Party’s standing among Black voters since President Biden left the presidential race, but she is still far from 2020 numbers for that part of the American electorate, which was essential for Joe Biden’s victory four years ago, reveals a poll from New York Times/Siena College.

Nearly 8 in 10 black voters said they would vote for M^me Harris, according to the poll, a sharp increase from the 74% of black voters who said they would support Mr. Biden before he withdrew from the race last July.

But Mr. Biden won 90% of the votes of black voters to conquer – narrowly – the White House in 2020. And the decline of Mr.^me Harris, if he holds his own, is pronounced enough to jeopardize his chances of winning key states.

Democrats have banked on a tidal wave of support from black voters, drawn by the possibility of electing the first black president and by hostility toward former President Donald Trump. His questioning of M’s racial identity^me Harris, her comments about “black jobs” and her demonization of Haitian immigrants have propelled Donald Trump’s long history of racist attacks to the forefront of the campaign.

Some black men support Mr. Trump

M^me Harris is undoubtedly on track to win an overwhelming majority of black voters, but Mr. Trump has not yet said his last word. His campaign relied on targeted ads and outreach events to court African-American voters – particularly black men – and saw a surge in support.

About 15% of black voters who said they were likely to go to the polls indicated they planned to vote for the former president, according to the new poll, an increase of six percentage points from four years ago. years.

The erosion of support for M^me Harris’s reason is largely a growing belief that Democrats, who have long celebrated black voters as the “backbone” of their party, have failed to deliver on their promises, the poll found. Forty percent of African American voters under 30 said the Republican Party was more likely to follow through on its campaign pledges than Democrats.

“They sweep the scraps off the table and give them to us like we’re dogs, saying, ‘This is for you,’” says LaPage Drake, 63, of Cedar Hill, Texas, near Dallas, about of the Democratic Party. “And we applaud like trained sea lions. »

Mr. Drake, owner of a tree felling company, will support Mr. Trump.

“It doesn’t matter if people call him racist or whatever, he’s for America,” Mr. Drake said.

Black women strongly support the vice president, at 83%. Twelve percent of black women indicated they would support Mr. Trump, and 5 percent are undecided. But the change from Mr. Biden’s 2020 numbers among black men is striking: 70% of them said they would vote for Mr.^me Harris in November, compared to 85% for Mr. Biden in 2020. This trend matches the gap observed between men and women in the American electorate generally, but it is relatively new among black voters.

Reconquering the black electorate

Despite Mr. Trump’s continued efforts to convince African-American voters that they were better off under his presidency, more black voters say the Biden-Harris administration’s policies helped them today, compared to February 2024. And far fewer say that Mr. Trump’s policies have helped them.

In Pittsburgh on Thursday evening, former President Barack Obama made a direct appeal to black men who might be hesitant to support Mr.^me Harris, suggesting that many “just don’t like the idea of ​​having a woman as president” and reminding them that “the women in our lives have always supported us.”

The allies of M^me Harris points to the work she did as vice president to reduce black unemployment, stabilize health care costs, and increase funding for historically black colleges and universities as examples of a concerted and tangible in favor of black communities. In recent interviews, M^me Harris said she knew it wasn’t a given that African-American voters would offer her their support.

In order to reach these voters, M’s campaign team^me Harris began a tour of historically black colleges and universities and over the weekend began lobbying religious black voters in key states. M^me Harris has also sought to engage black men through events and interviews with non-traditional media outlets, including a recent appearance on the podcast All the Smokehosted by Matt Barnes and Stephen Jackson – two former professional basketball players.

The vice president is also expected to participate in an event hosted by the morning radio show in Detroit on Tuesday The Breakfast Clubconfirmed one of the show’s hosts, Charlamagne tha God, on Friday. This nationally syndicated show is popular with black millennials.

African American voters have a much more favorable opinion of M^me Harris personally than Mr. Trump; 75% of them said that M^me Harris would do a better job of addressing the issues they care about. Only 17% believe Mr. Trump would do so.

“I think she’s more capable of doing the right thing than him,” said William Cox, 47, a truck driver in Greensboro, North Carolina. “She defends my family’s interests more. »

Some of Mr. Trump’s speeches appeal to black voters

But on specific issues, black voters are divided. Fifty-six percent say the United States should pay less attention to problems abroad and focus on problems at home – a position that more closely reflects Mr. Trump than those of M^me Harris. Forty percent of black voters favor Mr. Trump’s border wall, and 41% support deporting illegal immigrants — a measure Mr. Trump has said he wants to implement overwhelmingly. These figures are lower than the 52% who oppose this proposal, but they still represent a significant share of the black electorate.

Mr. Trump, who ended his campaign with rhetoric increasingly aimed at demonizing immigration, frequently evokes the distorted image of rampant crime in the nation’s cities, fueled by undocumented immigrants. In fact, violent crime in American cities has declined.

But 47% of African-American voters said crime in big cities had gotten out of control, apparently siding with Mr. Trump’s portrayals. Forty-two percent agree with a more moderate phrasing of the question: “Crime is a major problem in big cities, but it is not out of control.”

However, the difficulties encountered by M^me Harris with African-American voters hinges on the same issue as with other groups: the economy. Nearly three-quarters of black voters rate the economy fair or poor, and the economy and abortion are considered their most pressing concerns.

More than 7 in 10 black voters have cut back on groceries because of cost; 56% of them said they had to do it frequently.

In total, 78% of Black voters said their skin color still poses a significant obstacle for them, and 21% of them believe the Democratic Party does not have a solution to overcome these obstacles.

What could help M^me Harris, however, it is her party’s enduring reputation for helping low-income people of color that still persists among a wide swath of black voters.

“Things get better when we have Democratic presidents,” said Queneshia Baldwin, 34, a home care worker in Norwood, North Carolina, who added that she would vote for Mr.^me Harris. “I think the problem comes more from the Republicans. »

About the poll: This poll was conducted among 589 Black voters from September 29 to October 6, 2024, as part of a national poll of 3,385 voters.

This text was first published in the New York Times.

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