The President of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, a former Marxist guerrilla who was elected in 2022 by promising to overcome the inequalities undermining the Latin American country, says he is the victim of an attempted “coup d’état” orchestrated by the country’s conservative elites.
What you need to know
- The National Electoral Council announced this week the opening of a formal investigation into President Gustavo Petro’s campaign spending.
- The former Marxist guerrilla reacted by declaring himself the victim of a “coup d’état” attempt orchestrated by the country’s traditional elites.
- The exit of the president, who is struggling to adopt several reforms promised before his election, comes at a time when his popularity rating is in sharp decline.
He said this week that the opening of a formal investigation by the National Electoral Council (CNE) into his campaign spending, which follows a series of developments worthy of a telenovelaultimately aimed to fuel impeachment proceedings against him.
However, its release leaves several analysts questioned by The Presswho do not believe in the possibility that the head of state could be ousted from power in connection with this affair.
“The probability of this happening is zero,” says Laura Lizarazo, analyst at the firm Control Risks, based in Bogotá.
Even if the CNE were to conclude that there were irregularities, elected officials close to the president will be able to block any subsequent impeachment proceedings in Congress, she said.
There is no objective element to assert that we are witnessing an organized effort to dismiss [Gustavo Petro].
Laura Lizarazo, analyst at the firm Control Risks
Rather, she sees in the announcement of the opening of the CNE investigation a sign that the institutional counter-power mechanisms are functioning normally.
Juan Manuel Morales, a doctoral student in political science at the University of Montreal who works on Colombia, notes that the president’s mention of a possible coup d’état “fits well” with his usual narrative that he is fighting a battle. , in the name of the people, to elites resistant to any change.
This rhetoric goes unmentioned, he says, with credible reports suggesting that his campaign spending far exceeded the authorized ceiling, notably due to undeclared contributions from major unions.
Ricardo Ávila, political analyst attached to the daily El Tiempoone of the largest in the country, notes that the investigation follows in particular embarrassing revelations affecting close collaborators of the president.
One of his sons was notably splashed last year by the outings of his ex-partner, frustrated by infidelity, who accused him of having embezzled campaign funds for his father from drug traffickers.
Recordings in which the Colombian ambassador to Venezuela complained of having been neglected and threatened to make revelations about campaign financing that could land “everyone in prison” also caused scandal.
“Maximalist” reform program
Mr. Ávila notes that these affairs have damaged the image of Gustavo Petro, who had criticized the corruption of the political class during his campaign.
His approval rating has fallen by almost half in two years to 30%.
Mme Lizarazo thinks that this drop also reflects the difficulties encountered by the head of state in implementing his “maximalist” reform program.
Gustavo Petro managed to modify the tax system and the pension system to help the most disadvantaged, but still only delivered a limited part of his program, causing, she says, significant dissatisfaction.
Mr. Morales notes that the president has taken measures favoring traditionally marginalized groups, including women, the Afro-Colombian population and indigenous people, but is struggling, due to lack of a majority in Congress, to adopt, in particular, an important health reform. .
Gustavo Petro must deal in particular, says Mr. Morales, with the ideological opposition of right-wing elected officials who oppose his desire to confer greater responsibility on the State in the organization of services.
The country’s economic situation, which recorded inflation of almost 10% last year and low GDP growth, adds to its difficulties as does the evolving security situation.
When he came to power, Gustavo Petro put forward a strategy of “total peace” providing for the holding of negotiations with armed groups continuing to operate in the country and criminal groups.
The ploy produced mixed results, according to Mme Lizarazo, particularly in rural areas where drug production is concentrated.
Mr. Ávila notes that the restraint imposed on the police has had the effect of “liberating” in certain regions territories disputed by criminal organizations, which has fueled clashes and insecurity.
No right-wing figure seems able for the moment to impose itself in the opposition, notes the analyst, who expects that the president, limited to a single mandate, will seek to use the CNE investigation to “polarize” the electorate and relegate the failures of his government to the background.
“Gustavo Petro was very effective in the opposition at diagnosing problems, but he has been bad so far at getting things done,” notes the analyst.El Tiempo.