The Montreal real estate market has not yet experienced the recovery anticipated by Royal LePage, despite the key rate cuts. But in a few months, the market will become much more saturated, much to the dismay of buyers.
Rumors of additional reductions in interest rates could explain this cautious behavior of buyers, argues Royal LePage, in its quarterly study on house prices, published Thursday.
“There are more properties for sale currently on the island of Montreal than there were before the pandemic,” notes Executive Vice-President, Business Development at Royal LePage, Dominic St-Pierre, at the end of the third quarter of 2024.
The aggregate for a property in Montreal now stands at $605,400, the study revealed. This measure is equivalent to the average of the median prices of all property types analyzed. This is an increase of 1.0% compared to the second quarter of 2024, and an increase of 5.2% compared to the same period last year.
“The market seems to have slowly recovered. But it was the last quarter, probably, of moderate growth, says Mr. St-Pierre. We should probably return to a market that is very, very, very aggressive, and in favor of sellers. »
Another announcement from the Bank of Canada is scheduled for October 23. According to economists’ forecasts reported in the Royal LePage study, a new cut in the key rate should be announced, and there could be another before the end of the year.
The Canadian government also announced that as of December 15, new buyers will be able to amortize their mortgage over a maximum of 30 years, with the aim of facilitating access to property.
“The dilemma that seems to keep buyers up at night these days: get started now before prices rise under the pressure of increased demand or wait to land even more attractive mortgage rates? », Raised Mr. St-Pierre, in the publication.
According to Royal LePage, even if it has improved, the housing supply could still be insufficient to meet demand, which could become “extremely strong”.
According to Dominic St-Pierre, buyers who wish to acquire a property soon should not delay too long. Royal LePage predicts that the aggregate value of a property in Montreal could reach $614,978 in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Montreal is doing well
According to the Royal LePage study, the Greater Montreal real estate market is still doing well with healthy growth in activity and prices this quarter, compared to other major Canadian markets.
“The last 18 months for Toronto and Vancouver have been the worst years in more than ten years,” says Dominic St-Pierre, mentioning property prices, which are very high there.
In 2024, the median price of a single-family property in Montreal stands at $691,500 at the end of the third quarter, an increase of 1.5% compared to the previous quarter. For its part, the median price of a condominium reached $467,700, an increase of 0.4% on a quarterly basis.
Elsewhere in Quebec
Across Canada, the Quebec market experienced the largest increase in the aggregate price of a property compared to the previous year during this quarter. This is an increase of 10.5%, bringing it to $388,600.
The Quebec market, there really isn’t a lot of inventory, the price increases are quite aggressive and there isn’t much choice for buyers.
Dominic St-Pierre, executive vice-president, business development at Royal LePage
In Gatineau, Sherbrooke and Trois-Rivières, the increase is more moderate, but still more marked than in Montreal. Compared to the same quarter in 2023, the aggregate appreciated by 8.0%, 9.6% and 9.7% respectively.