Billionaire Elon Musk unveiled his company Tesla’s robotaxi on Thursday evening during a presentation in Los Angeles, envisaging production “before 2027” despite numerous technical and regulatory obstacles to overcome before entry into service.
The taxi, without a steering wheel and pedals, must be marketed at less than US$30,000 (CA$41,200), rechargeable by induction and “10 to 20 times” safer than a car driven by a human, said Mr. Musk from the Warner film studios.
Tesla hopes to launch “completely autonomous, unsupervised” driving in Texas and California in 2025 with existing models, before starting mass production of the robotaxi, called “cybercab”.
“I tend to be a little optimistic when it comes to timelines, but in 2026, so yes, before 2027. Let me put it like that,” continued the boss of the electric vehicle manufacturer.
Fifty units of this vehicle with butterfly doors have already been manufactured, he added.
The “cybercab” will, however, have to overcome technical and regulatory obstacles before being able to board its first customers, the autonomous vehicle in general having to convince of its reliability and safety.
“Small living room”
“In an autonomous world, we can consider the car as a small living room. […] You can [y] do whatever you want while you’re there, and when you come out, you’ll have arrived at your destination,” Elon Musk described.
The event, initially announced on August 8, was postponed to Thursday, with Mr. Musk citing in particular “a significant design change at the front.”
During a presentation lacking in details, Elon Musk also unveiled the “Robovan”, an autonomous vehicle that looks like a large toaster supposed to be able to transport 20 passengers or goods. He did not give a date or other details.
The billionaire also paraded dancing humanoid robots, called “Optimus”, ensuring that they would one day be capable of carrying out domestic tasks and maintaining friendly relations, for a price of between $20,000 and $30,000. US (between CA$27,500 and CA$41,500).
Again, no timetable, and the capabilities of these robots were not clearly observable, although they chatted with visitors and did service.
“Elon Musk has been talking about the imminent availability of self-driving cars for over a decade,” comments Paul Miller, analyst at Forrester. But “we’re not there yet.”
Competition
Tesla is several years behind Waymo from Google (Alphabet) and Cruise from automobile giant General Motors (GM), which have been on the road since 2021.
Waymo has more than 700 robotaxis – white Jaguars – including 300 in San Francisco, but the service is also present in Phoenix (Arizona), Austin (Texas) – lands of Tesla –, Los Angeles and soon Atlanta (Georgia). Each week, the company provides 100,000 paid journeys.
Tests have begun on highways and around the Phoenix airport.
Cruise operated in Phoenix, San Francisco, Houston and Austin until suspending operations in October 2023 after accidents. They resumed five months later, with restrictions.
According to Garrett Nelson, analyst at CFRA Research, “Tesla still does not have authorization to test autonomous vehicles” on the road network.
The limits of a technology
Packed with cameras and lidars (detection lasers), robotaxis are sparking intense debates on the advances and risks they represent.
“Autopilot”, Tesla’s driver assistance system, has been implicated in fatal accidents. His robotaxi will not be equipped with lidars, Elon Musk considering the cameras paired with an “artificial brain” sufficient.
The challenge is above all technological, to achieve the highest level of autonomy, considered to be the equivalent of the human driver. According to S&P Global Mobility, this will not be before 2035.
Uber, a global chauffeur-driven transportation giant, has entered into partnerships with many developers of autonomous vehicles, in particular Cruise and Waymo, and WeRide in the United Arab Emirates, but also Avride and Coco (delivery robots). It already offers Waymo in Phoenix for rides and deliveries.
Unlike vehicles driven by humans, robotaxis can circulate 24 hours a day, without getting sick, without going on strike, without taking breaks, and studies show that they are less accident-prone.
On the other hand, on an unmarked road or in the middle of a blizzard, they could reach their limits.