“Who are we going to make peace with? »

Israeli strikes in the Gaza Strip continue relentlessly, a year after Hamas militants killed more than 1,200 people in the attacks of October 7, 2023, increasing the number of civilian casualties on the Palestinian side with no prospect ceasefire is on the horizon.

Despite the repeated mention by the American administration of a possible truce, the impasse remains. The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the leaders of Hamas are passing the responsibility on each other, while the offensive in Lebanon and the risks of direct confrontation with Iran take center stage.

Talking at the moment about a return to calm in Gaza, or even lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians, appears “disconnected from reality”, says Kobi Michael, analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv who supports the Israeli government’s approach.

“Who are we going to make peace with? “, asks Mr. Michael, who sees no other option for his country than to continue tracking down Hamas militants.

The operations carried out over the past year, which have attracted strong criticism, have, according to him, killed nearly 60% of the members of the Islamist organization, decimated the ranks of the organization’s military and political leaders and destroyed its capabilities. weapons production.

Additional effort is needed, he says, to ensure that the Islamist organization will “never again” be able to exercise power within the Palestinian territory. The question of who could take over next, while the Palestinian Authority appears deeply weakened, remains unresolved.

“That does not mean that we are going to kill every last combatant and seize the last available rocket launcher,” notes Mr. Michael, who defends the idea of ​​setting up a formal military zone in the north of Gaza to force evacuating the remaining civilian population, and “starving” and killing the remaining militants, as well as anyone who dares to stay behind.

The controversial scenario has been submitted to the government, which is actively considering it, according to various international media.

Joost Hiltermann, who heads the Middle East section of the International Crisis Group (ICG), believes that Benjamin Netanyahu “does not really have a plan for what needs to happen now on the military level or on the civilian level in terms of governance” in Gaza.

Deaths and displacements

The Israeli prime minister’s determination is partly motivated by personal political considerations, notes Mr. Hiltermann, since he risks seeing the most radical elements of his coalition abandon him if he moderates his approach.

According to the most recent tally from the Ministry of Health in Gaza, more than 40,000 people have been killed by Israeli bombings over the past year.

Palestinians in the enclave have been forced to move repeatedly to escape the fighting and pushed to take refuge in “safe” areas, where many strikes have occurred.

Hiltermann said the only way forward is to consider genuine peace negotiations focused on finding a two-state solution, but “nothing like that is in sight.”

Alain Gresh, who runs the online newspaper Orient XXIbelieves that the violence suffered on both sides makes a lasting outcome of the situation unlikely in the near future.

The analyst insists on the need to stop the fighting as quickly as possible.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ), after being seized by South Africa, warned Israel of the risks of genocide in Gaza and determined provisional measures to prevent it, but the international community is slow to act to prevent this scenario from happening, notes Mr. Gresh.

Tel Aviv, which criticizes the intervention of the ICJ, is not the subject, notes the analyst, of sufficiently significant pressure, particularly from the United States, to bring about a change of course.

The Israeli army assures that the strikes carried out in Palestinian territory are calibrated so as to minimize the number of civilian victims.

Kobi Michael believes that the international community is being “hypocritical” on this subject since other bombing campaigns, such as that carried out by a large international coalition in 2014 against the armed group Islamic State in Mosul, Iraq, have had a major impact on the civilian population without arousing equivalent indignation.

“Hamas is deeply intertwined in the society and territory of Gaza, making it the most complex urban combat zone on the planet,” he emphasizes.

Lebanon, to divert attention?

Mr. Hiltermann of the ICG believes that the wave of bombings and the ground offensive launched in Lebanon against Hezbollah a few weeks ago are partly aimed at forgetting the situation in Gaza and the fate of the hostages still in the hands of Hezbollah. Hamas. According to Israeli authorities, 117 have been released since October 7, 2023. The Islamist organization still holds 97 presumed hostages alive.

“The government wants to change the narrative, to make people in Israel focus elsewhere,” he notes.

The analyst points out at the same time that Israel’s inability to return the civilian population evacuated from the border area with its northern neighbor was becoming an increasingly pressing political problem.

Tel Aviv, says Kobi Michael, does not want to permanently occupy Lebanese territory, but wants to make sure to push Hezbollah far enough north to prevent the organization from continuing its rocket attacks in support of Hamas.

“We will not occupy the territory, but we will monitor it and will not hesitate to strike if necessary,” says Mr. Michael.

The attitude of Iran, which controls Hezbollah, risks weighing heavily in the continuation of the conflict. Tehran, which was increasing its warnings to Israel, fired some 200 missiles towards the country on Tuesday, fueling a dangerous escalation.

Josh Bell, a former diplomat who heads the Middle East program of the Toledo International Center for Peace, notes that the new Iranian president, Massoud Pezeshkian, whose powers are limited, has displayed since taking office a certain desire for appeasement with the Western countries which seemed to bring hope. Hardliners within the regime, however, appear to be dictating the course of action for now.

Israel, for its part, wants to “force Hezbollah to submit” to its security imperatives without regard to what is happening in Gaza, an approach which will not, says Mr. Bell, ensure lasting peace.

Many Arab countries in the region are “in a wait-and-see mode” and want to see who wins the next US presidential election before investing further in the search for solutions, notes the analyst.

A victory for former President Donald Trump, who advocated a hard line against Iran during his mandate, could influence the equation.

“There will be no stability until the basic needs of Israel, the Palestinians and neighboring countries are reasonably met,” notes Mr. Bell.