“regaining control” of the “deficit trajectory” will be “extremely painful”, estimates an economist

The Prime Minister announced on Tuesday, during his general policy statement to the National Assembly, that he wanted to reduce the deficit to 5% in 2025 and achieve the European objective of 3% in 2029.

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Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers his general policy speech to the National Assembly on October 1, 2024. (ALAIN JOCARD / AFP)

“We are still very far from a trajectory that would allow us” that the deficit reaches 3% of GDP by 2029, estimates economist Philippe Dessertine on franceinfo on Tuesday October 1, after the announcement made to this effect by the Prime Minister during his general policy declaration. There “takeover” of the “deficit trajectory” going to be “extremely painful”he says.

The director of the Institute of High Finance explains that from 2025, “the objective will be set at 5%”which already represents “40 to 45 billion euros to be found very quickly”. To do this, Michel Barnier has already committed to “reduce public spending by 30 to 35 billion”. “However, at the end of his speech, the Prime Minister announces additional spending.notes Philippe Dessertine for whom this “double equation is going to be very complicated”.

This year, the deficit represents 6% of GDP, or even “6.2% according to projections”explains Philippe Dessertine. “We are on a trajectory of public finances which is a trajectory which is practically no longer controlled, the recovery will therefore be extremely painful”he says. Since “France has one of the highest taxes in the world”it is especially necessary to “very very strong revision of public spending” to straighten out the trajectory of public spending according to him.


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