what are the issues in the Prime Minister’s speech to the National Assembly?

“Tuesday, it’s going to be absolute horror, the left is going to be furious.” Like this Republican deputy, many fear a tense atmosphere in the aisles of the National Assembly for Michel Barnier’s general policy declaration, Tuesday October 1 at 3 p.m. In front of the deputies, the Prime Minister must take the floor for a speech supposed to detailhe priorities and the method he intends to apply from Matignon.

Provided for by the Constitution, this exercise is of particular importance for this new government, as its political base is fragile: several parties, including within the presidential camp, have warned Michel Barnier against “red lines” which he should not cross under penalty of losing their support, or even triggering the vote of a motion of censure. Here are the issues at stake in this already crucial meeting for Michel Barnier and his government.

A crucial exercise but without a vote of confidence at the end

Almost four weeks after his appointment by Emmanuel Macron, Michel Barnier must enter the arena of the National Assembly on Tuesday, with a complete government team at his side. Little has filtered out about the content of the speech he intends to give and which should set the course for his policy for the weeks and months to come. It will not be “not a catalog, but a panel of major priorities and some breakthrough measures”simply explains the entourage of the head of government to France Télévisions.

To prepare for this meeting, the Prime Minister was able to draw inspiration from the government seminar organized on Friday in Matignon. A ministerial advisor explained to franceinfo that the head of government had asked each of his ministers to come with their proposals to help him construct the general policy declaration. It remains to be seen whether these avenues will have been retained by Michel Barnier.

One thing is certain: there will be no vote of confidence at the end of this speech, as Michel Barnier’s entourage confirmed to franceinfo on Monday. It’s a “constant use outside absolute majority”, “not a constitutional obligation”we justify at Matignon, where we assure that “each text will be the subject of discussions with everyone”. Michel Barnier’s predecessors, Elisabeth Borne and Gabriel Attal, had not sought the confidence of the deputies either.

Announcements on public finance management at the center of attention

The Prime Minister will be particularly expected on the budgetary question, a hot topic in a very difficult public finance context. To try to put the accounts straight, will he announce a sharp reduction in state spending or an increase in certain taxes? Among the avenues considered, according to a source from the Ministry of the Economy at France Télévisions, local authorities could be called upon to reduce their spending. Their increased spending led to a “skid” of the deficit of 16 billion euros in 2024, according to former minister Bruno Le Maire. In terms of revenue, “Michel Barnier spoke of not taxing those who work. Retirees do not work, so the wealthiest could be taxed”further advances this source in Bercy.

Comments on the rule of law scrutinized

Since taking office, Michel Barnier has made immigration one of the major axes of his policy. “We are going to do practical things to limit and control immigration which often becomes unbearable and which leads to not welcoming those we welcome into our country”he warned on France 2, Sunday September 22. There is no doubt that this question will be addressed again during the general policy declaration on Tuesday.

Furthermore, his position will also be closely scrutinized on the rule of law while Bruno Retailleau, the new Ministry of the Interior, sparked a controversy by declaring in The JDD that “the rule of law is not intangible or sacred”. Part of the presidential bloc, several members of which are in the government, strongly denounced these statements. The President of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, for example recalled that the rule of law “protected[ait] our democracy”saying to himself “worry” words from the former boss of senators LR.

The reaction of the RN looked closely

The way in which the National Rally receives Michel Barnier’s speech will partly determine its lifespan. Since the arrival in Matignon of the former European commissioner, the party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella has had the destiny of the executive in its hands: by adding its votes to those of the left as part of the vote for a motion of censure, it could directly bring down the government. For the moment, the RN is being very cautious and demanding. If Michel Barnier “plays into the hands of the left, then there will be censorship”recalled Laurent Jacobelli on franceinfo. The RN spokesperson highlights the “red lines” of his political training on immigration, purchasing power or the security of the French.

The left expected to submit a motion of censure

Unlike the RN, the left has decided not to wait for the intentions of Michel Barnier’s government to decide: the four parliamentary groups of the New Popular Front in the National Assembly will vote for censure. Two things should nevertheless be watched among the 193 elected officials of the left bloc: will they table a motion of censure in the wake of the general policy declaration, Tuesday at the end of the day? In this case, the vote would take place on Thursday and would require all 11 parliamentary groups to position itself very quickly on the fate of the Barnier government. The other element to scrutinize has more to do with form: will left-wing elected officials disrupt the speech of the head of government on Tuesday afternoon? “I’m very afraid: it’s been four months since the rebels have been in the cauldron, it’s going to be a disaster”anticipates an LR deputy.

The response of part of the presidential bloc awaited

In theory, the three parties of the former presidential majority are part of the “common base” on which Michel Barnier’s government is based. They should therefore not show opposition to his speech. In fact, they are very demanding and ask for guarantees from the new head of government. Some are upset after Bruno Retailleau’s outing on the rule of law, while others are opposed to an increase in taxes. It will therefore be necessary to monitor the reactions, in particular those of the left wing deputies of Ensemble pour la République and the MoDem, to see if the base of Michel Barnier is already crumbling.