why the government will have difficulty carrying out major reforms

“It is a fixed-term contract of three or six months.” This is summed up, in the mouth of an LR deputy, the idea that many parliamentarians have of a position in the government. Michel Barnier finally managed to put together a government team ranging from MoDem to the Republicans. But when it comes time to deliver his general policy declaration, Tuesday October 1 at 3 p.m., the new Prime Minister knows that the hardest part is ahead of him. The former Brexit negotiator must detail his roadmap, knowing that there are many obstacles ahead.

“There is no legitimacy for major reforms. If he passes the budget, it will already be colossal”predicts a Renaissance deputy. “There will be no major reforms, it will involve a lot of decrees, regulations”confirms an LR deputy. Thanks to decrees, the government can do without the opinion of Parliament to legislate, but this procedure cannot be applied in all areas. “It is certain that Michel Barnier lacks room for maneuver”admits Philippe Juvin, LR deputy.

“There is a real fragility in the government, linked to the fact that the National Rally will seize the first opportunity to censor it.”

A Republican deputy

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The political situation in the Assembly actually looks like a puzzle for the head of government. With at best 234 deputies (including all the members of the Liot group), the relative majority remains very far from the bar of 289 parliamentarians necessary for the vote on a law. “The equation looks very complicated, the situation is precarious, but we must be able to find solutions, compromises”hopes Jean Terlier, Renaissance deputy.

To achieve this, the government will have to come to terms with its left or its extreme right. “The New Popular Front will place itself in frank opposition, so the government must find an agreement on each text that goes from MoDem to the National Rally”notes constitutionalist Benjamin Morel, lecturer at the University of Paris-Panthéon-Assas. For now, Marine Le Pen and her troops have promised that there will be no automatic censorship, while warning that they are placing the government “under surveillance”. “The RN has a strategic interest in allowing the Barnier government to survive, because it finds itself in an extremely favorable”translated Benjamin Morel.

Concretely, the far-right party will perfect its image of respectability, with the “tie strategy”, but will not hesitate to negotiate on each of the legal texts arriving in the hemicycle. And this, from the finance bill which must be examined soon. The left will in turn draw a certain number of red lines and the RN will be able to choose to take up some of them to make Michel Barnier bend. “The National Rally will then try to take credit for these amendments to the budget”predicts Benjamin Morel.

“The RN is in an ideal position. The only discomfort: the government will hold on thanks to them, while their voters would like to see it fall.”

Benjamin Morel, political scientist

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Faced with the state of public finances, the government is looking for resources and the relative majority has begun to divide on the question of possible tax increases. “A normal budget with a solid majority is already difficult, so a very constrained budget with a heterogeneous majority group is objectively very difficult”summarizes Horizons MP Loïc Kervran.

Especially since the RN should not make the task of the executive easier. To avoid being accused of complacency by not voting for censorship, the party chaired by Jordan Bardella is raising its voice on television sets. When Antoine Armand, the new Minister of the Economy, excluded the National Rally from the Republican arc, far-right leaders organized a group shooting, with explicit threats of censorship.

Antoine Armand was quickly reframed “clearly and firmly” by Matignon and Michel Barnier even called Marine Le Pen to explain, which provoked the anger of some of the Renaissance deputies. The episode shows how difficult solidarity promises to be for the new executive, which undoubtedly explains the need to appoint a minister responsible for government coordination.

“We want to remind Michel Barnier who is going to vote for his texts, because here he is only thinking of those who will abstain.”

A Renaissance setting

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The government also showed its divisions, through the remote exchange between Didier Migaud and Bruno Retailleau. “He must know that justice is independent in our country”launched the Minister of Justice on France 2, in response to the declaration of the Minister of the Interior who called for “firm and rapid sanctions for offenders”. The arrival of this fervent conservative at Place Beauvau tensed up part of the central bloc and the positions of some members of the government against marriage for all or the inclusion of abortion in the Constitution led Gabriel Attal to demand guarantees from the Prime Minister. “There is no ambiguity”replied Michel Barnier on France 2.

The former European Commissioner also knows that tensions risk appearing when divisive social debates come. Bruno Retailleau has already announced his intention to reform state medical aid through regulations. “A deletion would not be acceptable”warned Agnès Pannier-Runacher, the Minister of Ecological Transition. The Minister of the Republicans does not refrain, moreover, from “a new law” immigration. “This is one of the most sensitive subjects. But let’s already implement the voted text and the European provisions”replies a former Macronist minister who has become an MP again. Sunday, two days before Michel Barnier’s speech to the Assembly, new comments from Bruno Retailleau on “the rule of law” Who “is not intangible, nor sacred”were strongly criticized by figures of the ex-majority.

The issue of pension reform will also quickly return to the table. Both the RN and the left want to pass through a bill to repeal the criticized text of the previous government. Even if the two blocs manage to agree on a repeal, the Senate will oppose it and in the event of failure of the joint committee, the government is not forced to give the last word to the Assembly. Even if Michel Barnier said he was open to “improvements” for the most fragile, “he does not want to tear the reform to pieces and it would in any case be a red line for our group”warns Jean Terlier.

What other texts can the government move forward with? “Major divisive reforms, markers of a political family, will be difficult. But we can imagine consensual reforms like at the end of life”dares a former minister. The President of the Assembly Yaël Braun-Pivet also wants the text to be “reexamined before the end of the year”. Other issues were left unresolved by the previous government, such as the unemployment insurance reform or the agricultural orientation bill. There are also emergencies to manage, such as the situation in New Caledonia where electoral reform was suspended by Emmanuel Macron. On each of these texts, the government will be forced to find appropriate majorities. Otherwise, the Barnier experience will be short-lived.