Israel’s strategy remains a black box for most analysts. But after killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday September 27, Israel reached “what seems to be a historic turning point” in the fight against “enemies”declared Benjamin Netanyahu. Most of the Lebanese Shiite group’s military leaders are dead, according to Israel, but the Israeli army does not intend to stop there, and the intensive bombing campaign resumed Saturday and Sunday on Lebanon.
The Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu claims to have a simple war objective: secure the country’s northern border, which borders Lebanon, and allow its inhabitants to “return home safely”safe from Hezbollah rockets, according to statements by the Israeli Prime Minister. But faced with divided Westerners and an Iranian regime whose ability to respond is in doubt, the Jewish state could decide to push its strategic advantage a little further.
The Israeli army has massed troops near the Lebanese border in recent days, with a view to a possible ground intervention. “Your boots, the ones you wear, are going to go into enemy territory”even declared Wednesday the chief of staff of the Israeli army, General Herzi Halevi, in a communications operation filmed by television.
“The Israeli army almost always acts in two phases: a first air phase, then a land, or air-land phase”entrusted to Parisian the historian and former colonel Michel Goya. “The ground offensive is ready, Merkava tanks are already on the border. And in my opinion, this offensive will take place”adds on franceinfo Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, president of the Institute for Mediterranean Middle East Research and Studies (Iremmo).
“Netanyahu is in a position which allows him to establish a balance of power. (…) He has no pressure, nor any limit that would be imposed on him, neither by the Americans, nor by the Europeans, nor by the United Nations.”
Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, Middle East specialiston franceinfo
After a week of strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Israeli government is still officially seeking to allow the 60,000 Israelis evacuated from northern Israel since the days following October 7 to return to their homes. But for Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, he wants to go further. “How do we secure a border? (…) We can effectively establish a balance of power, provided that we enter the diplomatic field and negotiate”he believes. For the moment, nothing indicates a desire to open negotiations on the side of the Jewish state. “The attack on Hezbollah’s political apparatus means that Israel thinks that there is no longer any reason to negotiate anything with Hezbollah”agrees, on France 24, General Dominique Trinquand.
Benjamin Netanyahu, who scored points with his public opinion with the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, “will go through with the military strategy, he has the means to go there”, explains the former head of the French military mission to the UN. “Hezbollah will probably not be eradicated, but for it, it is about removing the military threat”. Concretely, the Israeli army could choose to limit its intervention in southern Lebanon in order to destroy military installations threatening northern Israel. “We come in, we clean, and we leave. The Israelis call it ‘mowing the lawn'”summarizes Michel Goya for the Parisian.
But a land operation remains “a risk for Israel, because naturally, ground troops mean Israeli losses”warns General Dominique Trinquand. In 2006, the war between Israel and Lebanon caused 160 victims on the Israeli side, compared to 1,200 on the Lebanese side. And southern Lebanon does not present the same characteristics as the Gaza Strip for the Israeli army. “There is the challenge of the terrain: bigger, more important and therefore more difficult to conquer. And second difficulty: Hezbollah is a more trained force,” explains Dominique Trinquand on France 24. “That could be a real nightmare for the Israeli army.”
Parallel to the operations carried out in Lebanon, the Israeli army continues without respite its offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. At least 41,595 Palestinians were killed in the campaign of retaliation for the October 7 attack, the majority civilians, according to data from the Health Ministry of the Hamas government in Gaza, deemed reliable by the UN. “We must also be concerned about the two million Gazans who are today in total deprivation”alert on franceinfo Jean-Paul Chagnollaud.
“We are here in a terrible humanitarian disaster [à Gaza] and we forget it.”
Jean-Paul Chagnollaudon franceinfo
Americans, Egyptians and Qataris got involved in vain in talks for a ceasefire and the release of the last hostages. Therefore, it is difficult to see an end to hostilities in the Gaza Strip. “What Netanyahu wants is to stay in Gaza, secure Gaza, not just secure the border”believes Jean-Paul Chagnollaud for his part. Especially since the international community is leaving the field open to the Israeli government, with Americans focused on the presidential election and Europeans who still do not speak with one voice. “Netanyahu has the conviction, the certainty, that the West will do nothing to prevent him”according to Jean-Paul Chagnollaud.
“Netanyahu, it is his policy, wants the war to continue, he does not want a solution, he does not want a Palestinian state. (…) He has an interest in a certain degree of escalation”also judges the former Minister of Foreign Affairs Hubert Védrine on LCI. The Israeli Prime Minister has repeatedly refused the hypothesis of a two-state solution, with the creation of a Palestinian state. “It is the goal of his life that there is no Palestinian state”even believes Hubert Védrine.
“In the event of a future agreement, (…) Israel must be able to control the security of all the territory west of the Jordan”declared the Israeli Prime Minister again in January. “We will see it in the coming months, Netanyahu wants to completely suffocate the West Bank, so that it can continue the colonization, to annex it”predicts Jean-Paul Chagnollaud again. “Benyamin Netanyahu’s very clear strategy consists, in a word, of dominating the region.”
A year after October 7, the Israeli Prime Minister has regained control. “Israel managed to completely reverse the terror. They were on the ropes, traumatized, weakened, discredited. Today, they are causing fear again”a senior European military official told AFP, on condition of anonymity. But the blows dealt to Hamas and Hezbollah could also ultimately destabilize the region. “There may be global reactions, with the Shiite diaspora setting out from Syria and Iraq, but also with the Houthis who may develop operations in the Red Sea“explains former colonel Peer de Jong on franceinfo. The vice-president of the Themiis Institute anticipates “extremely strong international reactions”particularly in “the Arab street”. Israeli operations, “militarily speaking, it’s playable, politically speaking, it’s very complicated to manage in the medium term”.