Is there a real risk that Iran will attack Israel — its sworn enemy — to defend Hezbollah, its Lebanese ally? Despite Ayatollah Khamenei’s fiery rhetoric, experts agree that the Islamic Republic has little interest in engaging in open confrontation with the Jewish state.
“This is not a risk that Iran is prepared to take,” says Karim El-Mufti, professor of international relations at Sciences Po Paris and Saint-Joseph University in Beirut. “I can’t see the Iranians attacking Israel. They will try to negotiate and find a way out [pour le Hezbollah]. »
Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, recalls that Iran created Hezbollah in the early 1980s to fight on its behalf. In the current game of dice, the Islamic Republic seeks above all to be recognized as a regional power, he analyzes.
“Iran does not want to fight against the West or against Israel. Iran ensures that its proxies [proxies] are causing waves in the area, then he says: “No, no, let’s calm the situation down.” »
This is also what Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian sought to do by proposing “a new era of cooperation” to the West earlier this week, during a speech delivered at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. A regional war in the Middle East “wouldn’t benefit anyone,” he added. A tone which is at odds with the usual warmongering of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose lexical field is full of incendiary threats aimed at Israel.
While speaking at the UN on Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not fail to warn his enemy that “there is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach “. “If you hit us, we will hit you,” he warned.
Preserving Hezbollah
In interview at DutyAvi Melamed, a former agent of the Israeli intelligence services and former adviser on Arab affairs to former Prime Minister Éhoud Olmert, also claims to believe that Iran will not attack the Jewish state. “Iran’s interest is to preserve Hezbollah,” he maintains. If an all-out war with Israel were to be unleashed, “it would mean that Hezbollah, already severely weakened, [par les frappes israéliennes]could be wiped out, which would result in Iran losing its most important proxy” in the region.
A loss which would represent a major defeat for the Islamic Republic, adds Avi Melamed. The Shiite group has a dual usefulness for the ayatollah regime, he says, by allowing it both to maintain its control over Lebanon and to be “a card of deterrence in the event that Iranian nuclear installations face a threat.” military threat.
Last spring, the Iranian regime also warned Israel that it had “hands on the trigger” to respond to the Jewish state if it carried out targeted attacks against its nuclear sites.
Nuclear deal
Currently, the Iranian government is seeking to extricate the country from a severe economic crisis triggered by the 2018 US withdrawal from the nuclear deal. The new Iranian president, Pezeshkian, repeated at the UN that he wanted to relaunch negotiations to initial a new agreement and thus obtain relief from Western sanctions.
However, previous negotiations had partly failed due to the role assigned by Iran to its proxies to destabilize the region, recalls Professor Khashan. “By affirming that it is ready to renegotiate the nuclear program, Iran is therefore indicating that it wants to find a diplomatic path for Hezbollah,” analyzes the expert. This therefore leaves no doubt that Hezbollah will have to abandon southern Lebanon. »
Iran is currently working to find a way to “dignifiedly withdraw” its Shiite ally from the territory adjoining Israel, adds Mr. Khashan. “I think we will eventually find a way out of this crisis. But only after Hezbollah has been weakened enough for it to accept a deal. »
Avi Melamed also believes the group will have no choice but to leave southern Lebanon. “Hezbollah responds to power and force, and it knows how to do its calculations. It is currently severely weakened,” he summarizes. Since Monday, Israel has increased bombings on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, severely affecting the Shiite militia’s strike force.
Israel’s military objective will be achieved because the Jewish state “has no other options”, adds the former intelligence agent. “Israeli communities in the north cannot continue to live under the threat of Hezbollah missiles. No Israeli government, whatever it is, would accept this. »
According to Karim El-Mufti, Hezbollah, which is currently suffering a major “beating,” and Iran have been caught in their own trap. “By bluffing, threatening, talking about red lines and uncontrolled escalation […] Israel understood that the great bluff of Hezbollah and Iran did not hold. »