the far right at the top of the polls with a very radical leader at its head

Austrians vote on Sunday to elect their deputies and choose a chancellor. The far-right party is leading the way in the polls. At its head, Herbert Kickl, who dreams of a “fortress Austria”.

Two days before the legislative elections scheduled for Sunday September 29, 2024, the Austrian far-right party FPÖ is leading the race in the polls, credited with 27% of the votes. And that’s no surprise. Lhe elections of recent months, whether local or European, confirmed that the FPÖ was indeed back at its highest level, completely recovered from the “Ibizagate” corruption scandal which had weakened it in 2019, during the last legislative elections.

But, if there is an air of déjà vu in Austria, it is misleading, because the FPÖ of Herbert Kickl, who took the lead in 2021, has a different strategy from that of past years. A divisive personality, Herbert Kickl established himself as number 1 during the coronavirus pandemic. During this period, he became the voice of anti-vaccines, a movement which was important in Austria.

Since then, he has adopted a radical discourse, both in substance and in form, far from a strategy of demonization, as the RN does in France. He uses terms that are thinly veiled references to National Socialist language, assumes pro-Russian positions, speaks of a “orbanization” of Austria and defends ever more extreme positions on immigration, constantly repeating that he wants a “Fortress Austria”.

But the conservatives of the ÖVP are not far behind the FPÖ. CIn recent days, the gap has even narrowed. Led by the current chancellor Karl Nehammer, the conservative party is today credited with 25% of voting intentions, ahead of the social democrats of the SPÖ at 21%. The legislative campaign was disrupted by storm Boris which hit Austria hard. And the FPÖ which never stops talking “climate hysteria” may have lost some voters here. It is therefore possible that the conservatives will come out on top on Sunday, ahead of the FPÖ, which would be a surprise.

As for the accession of the extreme right to power, everything will depend on the conservatives. The latter have already governed twice with the far right in recent years. Chancellor Karl Nehammer has not ruled out discussions with the far right, but has however ruled out negotiating with Herbert Kickl himself, precisely because of his radicalism.

The hypothesis of a new coalition between the extreme right and the conservatives therefore remains possible. But the latter could also choose to ally themselves with the social democrats and possibly the small liberal party Neos. In short, if the extreme right has a good chance of coming to the top of the ballot, nothing is certain about possible government participation.