A ceasefire proposal swept aside? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured Thursday, September 26 that the Israeli army would continue to target Hezbollah “with all necessary force” in Lebanon. His office appeared to reject the call for an immediate 21-day ceasefire, citing “a American-French proposal to which the Prime Minister did not even respond. At the same time on Thursday, intense strikes continued in eastern and southern Lebanon.
To better understand the events of recent days, franceinfo interviewed Daniel Meier, teacher at Sciences Po Grenoble, specialist in Lebanon and author of several works, including Lebanon: from Phoenician myth to contemporary perils. The researcher answered questions sent by our readers.
@aglioecipolla: Why is it not official that Israel has declared war on Lebanon? We seem to be talking more about “events”…
Daniel Meier: This is not official, precisely because Israel does not want to say that it is waging war. To say this would mean being responsible for entering the war, which the American administration refuses. There is the question of not declaring war, but also the question of being in conflict against whom. The interest in being at war with Hezbollah is that the Jewish state is fighting against a group that is defined as terrorist. This legitimizes in advance the violation of Lebanese territory.
@fannybk: I am very surprised by the non-response of the regular Lebanese army to the attacks on Lebanon, and in particular on sites which are not Hezbollah military sites. I can imagine that the current economic and political situation in Beirut does not help, but it still leaves power and initiative to Hezbollah.
There is a first element, it is the structural weakening of the State. There is a power that has resigned at the helm today. Furthermore, there is no president, and the president is the supreme leader of the military. Then there is a political explanation: the Lebanese government does not want to send its troops to be chopped up. The weaponry of the Lebanese army is significantly inferior to that possessed by Hezbollah.
“There will be resistance at the time of a land invasion, not before.”
Daniel Meier, Lebanon specialistto readers of franceinfo.fr
In the case of a land offensive, as in 2006, the army would position itself to defend the territory from a certain number of military positions. Nevertheless, the confrontations with Israel were clearly experienced as a disaster. The Lebanese army has no deterrent capacity against Israel. It would be a suicidal operation, but necessary during a land invasion.
@jojojobe: What does Iran say about this escalation?
Iran is caught in the crossfire. On the one hand, he obviously wants to defend his asset, Hezbollah; on the other, Tehran refused Hezbollah’s request to intervene. This means that Iran is also making a strategic calculation of its military investment, and what it could cost it.
“Involvement by Iran would justify, for Israel, going to war against Tehran.”
Daniel Meier, Lebanon specialistto readers of franceinfo.fr
Iran is today in dialogue with the Europeans, and with the Americans too, for the lifting of the blockade. Trying to get economic sanctions lifted is the most important thing for the country today. Iranian society today is in a very difficult situation.
@abcagou: What is happening in the Middle East is intolerable for anyone. My questions are: who funds Hezbollah? Who will pay to rebuild Gaza? Who will pay to rebuild South Lebanon? Finally, when will UN resolutions be implemented to prohibit the occupation of the West Bank?
Hezbollah is financed by two sources. First, by Hezbollah itself: it is self-financing through diversification of investments across the world, in the diaspora. This can take the form, for example, of a religious tax. And then there are illegal activities, the extent of which we do not know, such as those linked to drugs, but also small, more innocent trafficking activities. The other source of financing is Iran.
On reconstruction, there is a strong chance that it will be a bill shared between the Gulf and Western countries. There are examples, in the Israeli occupation, where the EU rebuilt without sending Israel the bill. There are no financial consequences for the Jewish state.
“If Israel were to undertake the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip – which could take 15 to 20 years – it would bring its economy to its knees.”
Daniel Meier, Lebanon specialistto readers of franceinfo.fr
As for UN resolutions, they apply in principle as soon as they are voted on. However, Israel considers these texts null and void. So, even if we can pass a resolution, we are not at all sure that it can be applied… There is an absence of will from the international community to enforce them.
I wonder how willing he will be to enforce yesterday’s declaration, calling for a 21-day ceasefire. I think the international community is shocked and worried. There were 558 deaths on Monday, we had never seen such a massacre in twenty-four hours since the end of the civil war. The temporary ceasefire could be accepted by Israel, but it remains to be seen whether there will be an additional condition. Israel is trying to separate the issue of the Gaza Strip from that of Lebanon in the negotiations.
@Anneb76: I find it hard to understand why we talk about Hezbollah as a political party, when it has an armed wing and is on the list of terrorist groups in many countries around the world.
Hezbollah is a political group which established itself as a legitimate political force in the 2nd Lebanese republic, from 1992, with seats in Parliament and then ministers in the government from 2005. We must dissociate the two things, the political party and its armed wing. Some describe the armed wing of Hezbollah as terrorist, which differentiates the political branch from the armed branch.
@cycloecolo: If the Israeli army tries to enter Lebanon, is UNIFIL instructed to prevent it? And according to Benjamin Netanyahu’s statements, Israel knows in which living room, in which garage, Hezbollah stores its missiles… Why doesn’t it give the addresses to UNIFIL so that it can go and seize them, instead of bomb the entire building, causing collateral casualties?
There United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon is not instructed to prevent Israel from entering, it is instructed to report the violation. UNIFIL reports airspace violations, for example. The low hypothesis is around 22,000 violations, the high hypothesis is over 30,000 violations.
On the subject of missile seizures, several examples have shown that this gave rise to skirmishes. It is also mentioned that UNIFIL must refer to the Lebanese army to carry out these seizures. However, the military intelligence services are largely in the hands of Hezbollah…
@Domsotber: What does the work carried out by Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron consist of (to obtain a 21-day ceasefire)? All these discussions and meetings seem to have no effect…
It’s diplomacy, it’s a paralanguage of war. If we don’t do diplomacy, we will immediately move on to sending missiles. The language of international relations seems to be useless, but this is often not true. This is the best way to avoid war. It is a way of making impasses and possibilities felt, and of precisely negotiating ways out of the crisis. It’s terribly frustrating work, but obligatory work.