In 2021, Canada set itself the goal of reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40% to 45% compared to 2005 by 2030. This objective brings us closer to our main foreign partners, such as the United States, which is aiming for a reduction of 50% to 52% over the same period.
Based on available data, emissions have only decreased by 8% since 2005. Government estimates suggest that if all policies currently being planned were implemented and working as intended, Canada could achieve a 36% reduction by 2030.
So even in the best-case scenario, a gap remains. How will Canada close this gap by 2030? And how can we keep pace with our international allies who are likely to announce ambitious targets for 2035 soon? Our independent expert panel, the Net-Zero Advisory Body, submitted its responses to the Minister of Environment and Climate Change this week.
For the country to reach its 2030 target, we recommend five key measures:
- finalize the measures announced, such as the Clean Electricity Regulation, for example;
- managing negative interactions between current policies;
- strengthen industrial carbon pricing, to provide investors with more certainty on policies and prices;
- achieve further reductions in the oil and gas sector, which is responsible for almost a third (31%) of national emissions;
- pursue a set of high-impact actions, such as gradually reducing the use of heating and air conditioning devices that use fossil fuels.
In a second report on the 2035 target, we recommend that the government adopt a “carbon budget,” following the example of the United Kingdom, France, Montreal and Edmonton. By defining a total amount of emissions to be spent by 2050, Canada will be able to better explain and assess the climate impacts of its policy decisions—just as people’s income and spending affect what they have left at the end of the month.
We also recommend that the government adopt a target of reducing emissions by 50% to 55% by 2035 compared to 2005. This range would allow Canada to keep pace with its trading partners. The European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan and other countries have already discussed reduction targets of 75% or more by 2035.
These recommendations may seem ambitious. To get there, we have conducted extensive research, modelling and consultations that demonstrate that these actions are achievable and will contribute to economic growth and competitiveness. To achieve this, the federal government, as well as the provinces, territories, municipalities and the private sector, will need to demonstrate greater ambition.
Canada is among the world’s largest emitters, both per capita and in absolute terms, and we have already burned most of our fair share. A carbon budget consistent with the Paris Agreement would now be close to zero, if not negative. Therefore, in addition to adopting a carbon budget, we recommend that the government measure our “excess” emissions and take offsetting measures. This could mean supporting developing countries or working to remove carbon from the atmosphere, including through natural and technological means.
The fight against climate change is comparable to a relay race. If you run slowly during the first relay, you leave your successors with the difficult task of running faster. We hope that our recommendations will be heard by Canadians and their elected officials, so that ambitious actions can be put in place quickly to avoid passing on an overly difficult baton to future generations.