Israel is bombing targets in many parts of Lebanon, hitting senior militants in Beirut and reportedly hiding bombs in pagers and walkie-talkies. Hezbollah is firing rockets and drones into northern Israel, setting buildings and cars ablaze. But no one is talking about war — or at least, not yet.
How do stakeholders describe the ongoing conflict?
Israeli officials say they do not seek war with Hezbollah and that it can be avoided if the militant group stops its attacks and moves away from the border. Hezbollah also says it does not want war, but says it is prepared for one – and will continue the strikes on Israel that it began following the attack by its Hamas allies on October 7 until there is a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
Since that attack, Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged bombardments several times, but the intensity escalated Monday, when Israeli airstrikes killed more than 490 people, according to Lebanese officials. It was the deadliest day in Lebanon since the last war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.
“Like most analysts, if someone had told me in the summer of 2023 that Hezbollah would strike Israeli bases in Israel and that Israel would strike southern Lebanon and parts of southern Beirut, I would have said, ‘Okay, this is all-out war,’” said Andreas Krieg, a military analyst at King’s College London.
However, this term has not yet been applied to the current conflict, because “there have been no soldiers on the ground” (boots on the ground), but that may not be “the right measure,” he added.
Is there a common definition of war?
The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines war as “a state of hostile armed conflict, usually open and declared, between states or nations.” Scholars generally expand this definition to cover large-scale violence involving insurgents, militias, and extremist groups.
But any attempt at precision is difficult, because armed conflicts range from states clashing with tanks and fighter jets to smaller-scale battles.
Sometimes states formally declare war, as Israel did after Hamas’ attack last year.
He has not made a similar statement about Hezbollah, but he has linked his strikes against the group to the war in Gaza, saying last week that he was pursuing the goal of allowing tens of thousands of residents of the country’s north to return safely. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant also frequently speaks of an ongoing war against Iran and its allies on “seven fronts,” including Lebanon.
States often refrain from declaring war, even when they are clearly engaged in it. Russia officially calls its invasion of Ukraine a “special military operation” and has banned any public reference to war. The United States has not officially declared war since World War II, although it has participated in major conflicts in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
Why does neither side want to talk about war?
If neither Israel nor Hezbollah uses the word “war,” it is partly because both hope to achieve their goals without triggering a bigger conflict – or being held responsible for one.
“Although tensions are rising, the situation in southern Lebanon is not one of full-scale war, as Hezbollah and Israel hope to use limited means to put pressure on each other,” said Lina Khatib, a Middle East expert at the London-based think tank Chatham House.
With its rocket and drone attacks, Hezbollah hopes to pressure Israel into agreeing to a ceasefire with Hamas – another Iranian-backed militant group – and avoid being seen as bowing to Israeli pressure.
Hezbollah has said it will stop its attacks if there is a truce in Gaza, but prospects for such an agreement appear remote.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to do whatever is necessary to end the attacks so that displaced Israelis can return home.
“I think the Israelis are trying to say to Hezbollah, ‘Come to the negotiating table and we’ll either resolve this through diplomacy, or we’ll push you to the limit until you overreact,'” Krieg said. “And it will be all-out war.”
What might a full-scale war look like?
Until recently, experts generally agreed that any future war between Israel and Hezbollah would be like the one they fought in 2006, only much worse.
For years, Israeli officials have warned that in the event of a war with Hezbollah, the military would exact a heavy toll on Lebanon itself, destroying critical infrastructure and razing Hezbollah strongholds. This became known as the Dahiyeh Doctrine, named after the crowded southern Beirut neighborhood where the militant group is headquartered — and which suffered heavy destruction in 2006.
Hezbollah, for its part, has spent years developing and improving its arsenal, and is estimated to possess some 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of striking all regions of Israel.
The military buildup and threats created a situation of mutual deterrence that allowed the border to remain largely calm from 2006 until October last year. For most of the past year, the region braced for the worst, but both sides exercised restraint, and talk of “all-out war” remained hypothetical.
This may change at any time.
“We have moved up a notch, but we have not yet reached the next level,” said Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University. “Ultimately, I don’t see any other option than a ground operation.”
Is it definitely a war if there is a land invasion?
Any Israeli decision to send tanks and troops into southern Lebanon would mark a major escalation and would lead many to classify the conflict as a war. But the two do not necessarily go hand in hand.
Israel officially declared war on Gaza nearly three weeks before sending ground troops there. Israeli ground forces have operated in the West Bank for decades and in recent months have regularly launched airstrikes against militants, with no suggestion that this is a war.
A limited Israeli ground incursion could still allow both sides to reverse course.
Of course, Lebanon would likely consider a ground invasion a flagrant violation of its sovereignty and an act of war. But Beirut already accuses Israel of regularly violating its airspace and occupying disputed territory along the border.
In fact, the two countries have been officially at war since 1948.