The explosions of pagers, then walkie-talkies targeting members of Hezbollah, but also statements by Israeli leaders, raise fears of an escalation in this already tense area.
His reaction was particularly expected, after the deadly explosions that targeted members of his movement. The head of Lebanese Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, assured in a speech on Thursday, September 19, that “Lebanon’s front with Israel will remain open until the end of the aggression in Gaza”. The Hebrew State “will receive a terrible punishment”, threatened the leader of the Islamist movement, allied with the Palestinian Hamas, while the Israeli air force broke the sound barrier over Beirut.
Shortly before this speech, the Israeli army announced new strikes. “on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon” and the death of two of his soldiers, “fallen in battle” in northern Israel in the afternoon. In this new escalation, is a larger-scale Israeli operation in southern Lebanon to be feared? The actions carried out against Hezbollah “will continue”, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned Thursday evening. “The possibility of an Israeli ground attack is absolutely not excluded”assures franceinfo Adel Bakawan, associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).
The attacks of the last few days are “probably the strongest blow ever struck against Hezbollah since its creation”said journalist Anthony Samrani, editor-in-chief of the French-language Lebanese daily, on France Inter The Orient-The Day. On Tuesday, simultaneous explosions of pagers, a radio messaging system used by the Islamist movement, hit the organization’s strongholds in Lebanon. The next day, walkie-talkies exploded, once again hitting the Iran-backed movement. The toll is very high, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry: at least 37 dead, including two children and civilians, and about 3,000 injured. Israel has not commented on the matter.
These actions raise the specter of a conflict spreading further into Lebanon. ““You can’t do something like that, hit thousands of people and think that war is not near.”said retired Israeli Brigadier General Amir Avivi, to the American agency Associated Press. For a former Israeli official, quoted by the news site Axios, “Israeli intelligence planned to use the booby-trapped pagers” for the “surprise launch of an all-out war aimed at paralyzing Hezbollah”.
“Why didn’t we do it for 11 months? Because we weren’t ready for war yet. What happens now? Israel is ready for war.”
Amir Avivi, retired Israeli generalto Associated Press
Researcher Adel Bakawan believes that this attack on Hezbollah could represent more of a “pretext”. “The central objective is Israel’s first enemy, namely Iran. To bring the Iranians into this war, it is absolutely necessary to mobilize all means to provoke Hezbollah,” The expert argues that with these explosions, the Hebrew state wants to show the Lebanese movement that it can attack it. “wherever it is, at any time and on any scale”. Beyond Hezbollah or Iran, “It is a message sent to all the powers of the Middle East: Israel is technologically superior,” analysis Adel Bakawan.
Following the assassinations of the Hamas leader at the end of July, Ismael Haniyeh, in Tehran, and from Hezbollah military leaderFouad Chokr, in Beirutcserial explosions reunite “all the conditions for both sides of the border” between Lebanon and Israel become “a space under high tension”observe Adel Bakawan. “This double operation contributes significantly to the escalation,” is it suitable. However, “This does not change the broad outlines of the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel”according to him. No more than between Iran and Israel, at this stage. “The Iranian strategy, which is also that of Hezbollah, is not to enter into a total war. We are not at a major turning point, unless Israel decides that this event is one.”
The deadly attacks in Lebanon in recent days are not the only recent developments raising fears of an escalation between the Jewish state and Hezbollah. Earlier this week, the Israeli security cabinet decided to add a new point to the goals of Israel’s war: the safe return to their homes of displaced people from the north of the country. “Israel will continue to act to implement this goal,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement.
Statements supported by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant: “The possibility of an agreement is fading because Hezbollah continues to ‘tie itself’ to Hamas and refuses to end the conflict, he said, according to a statement. Therefore, the only way to ensure the return of the communities in northern Israel to their homes will be military action.” Added to this are new statements by the minister on the region two days later. On Wednesday, Yoav Gallant stressed that the “center of gravity” of the war was now moving “towards the north”. “We have not forgotten the hostages and we have not forgotten our missions in the South,” he assured, adding: “We are at the beginning of a new phase of the war.”
On the same day, the Israeli army’s 98th Division – previously positioned in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip – was redeployed to the northern regions of the country, reports The Times of Israel. And Israeli army chief of staff Herzi Halevi reviewed several plans for a possible confrontation on the Israeli-Lebanese border, according to a statement carried by the New York Times.
“We are diverting forces, resources and energy to the north.”
Yoav Gallant, Israeli Defense Ministerat Ramat David Air Base
Should we see this as an unofficial announcement of a larger-scale operation against Hezbollah? “There have been rumors for several months, this possibility of a large-scale operation in Lebanon,” Héloïse Fayet, a researcher at the Center for Security Studies at Ifri, told franceinfo. However, the statements of the last few days, against a backdrop of explosions targeting Hezbollah and military preparations, “lend credibility to the idea of a major operation in southern Lebanon”according to the expert. “The army’s goal is to secure northern Israel. This could involve action in this region. Israeli forces nevertheless remain very engaged in Gaza,” she continues.
According to information from several Israeli media outlets, differences are emerging within the defense on the advisability of a new front in Lebanon. Ori Gordin, head of the northern command of the Israeli army, is calling for a ground incursion into southern Lebanon to create a buffer zone, according to this information relayed by The Times of Israel. Yoav Gallant and Herzi Halevi have reservations, according to the same sources.
Developments which do not fail to worry the American defense, according to the Wall Street Journal. According to the daily’s information, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has expressed to other Pentagon officials his fears about a possible Israeli offensive in Lebanon. “Fighting Hezbollah is very different from fighting Hamas, emphasizes Héloïse Fayet. LThe situation in Gaza is not resolved enough for Israel to allow this transfer of forces without operational consequences. And Hezbollah, even if disorganized by the explosions, represents a greater threat.”