Masks, vaccines, drugs, semiconductors… The pandemic has spread the collateral damage of globalization and the relocation of production activities to economic and health sovereignty. Global warming adds to it with an energy transition coming up against this issue of self-sufficiency.
In 2030, Europe will not produce more than the equivalent of 30% of its strategic mineral needs for the electric batteries of the energy transition, such as lithium, cobalt or nickel, concluded the French industrialist Philippe Varin. , author of the report on “securing the supply of mineral raw materials” submitted Monday to the French government.
The energy transition, the deployment of low-carbon technologies and the electrification of large-scale transport will inexorably lead to an explosion in demand for certain minerals, said the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its report published on the 5th. May 2021. For private cars alone, at least 130 million electric vehicles should circulate in the world by the end of the decade, against 11 million currently, according to projections by the Agency. If we admit that building an ordinary electric car requires six times more minerals than a car with an internal combustion engine, and building a wind farm on land uses nine times more resources than a power plant in gas…
Globally, global demand for metals is expected to increase from 8 to 20 billion tonnes by 2060, according to OECD forecasts. More specifically and closer to home, the IEA predicts that global demand for nickel and cobalt linked to the energy transition could be multiplied by 20 and that of lithium by more than 40 by 2040.
The specialist site Connaissance des Energies notes that the share of global demand coming from low-carbon technologies, marginal five years ago, will exceed 40% for rare earths and copper by 2040 (compared to 24% in 2020) . It would be around 60 to 70% for nickel and cobalt (against 8% and 15% respectively in 2020) and reach 90% for lithium (against 29% in 2020).
“The figures show an imminent gap between increased global climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals essential to realize these ambitions,” warns IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. He underlines that many challenges arise in terms of supply: “geographic concentration, delays in implementing new mining productions, declining quality of resources in certain regions, environmental and social impacts [des mines]… ”, We read in a text from Agence France-Presse.
Philippe Varin’s report adds that China has taken 20 years ahead “of controlling the entire supply chain in strategic minerals and metals in order to get out of dependence on fossil fuels”, citing a risk of shortage of critical materials for local production lines.
Chinese domination
In addition to the Chinese domination in the treatment of minerals used in the construction of infrastructure dedicated to alternative energies and electric vehicles, geopolitical analyst Angelo Katsoras, of the National Bank, illustrated this omnipresence of the Middle Empire also in their exploitation. mining. “Chinese companies have considerable control over mining of these minerals, although the reserves are largely found in other countries. He gives the example of cobalt. “The production of cobalt from China and the United States is virtually zero. The Democratic Republic of the Congo now accounts for more than 70% of the world’s supply. China controls about half of that country’s production. “
And that of lithium. “China produces only about 9% of the world’s lithium (compared to 1% to 2% for the United States), but it has acquired significant stakes in local companies or mining operations in the main producing states. In addition, China accounts for or still controls 60% of the world production of rare earths.
Recycling and alternative chemistry
This apparently gloomy portrait, however, is interesting in that it opens the door to international policies for the environmental standardization of mining practices, still denounced by local communities for their impact on deforestation and the destruction of ecosystems, air pollution and water contamination.
It also puts the emphasis on recycling. In its reflection paper Metamorphosis, the Mercer Canada firm also suggested that institutional investors orient themselves more towards companies or industries dedicated to the recycling of these metals and materials with a view to a circular economy oriented towards recycling and reuse. This prioritization is all the more encouraged as the economy is pushing towards regulatory tightening and increased taxation of carbon and greenhouse gases.
For batteries powering electric vehicles, this portrait hides the rise of new chemical combinations that are expanding the spectrum of metals and minerals required. And the experimentation of a dozen alternative technologies, real and potential.