Antibiotic resistance could cause more than 39 million deaths by 2050

According to a modeling study published in “The Lancet”, antibiotic resistance raises fears of a 70% increase in deaths linked to antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

Although the phenomenon was known, its consequences were not yet quantified. For the first time, a study evaluates the impact of antibiotic resistance over time and attempts to estimate its evolution. According to the results, which concern more than 200 countries, revealed Monday, September 16 in the medical journal The Lancetscientists are clear: in the next 25 years, 39 million people worldwide risk dying from antibiotic-resistant bacteria. That’s almost as many as the population of Canada.

Already recognised as a major health challenge, antibiotic resistance – when bacteria or other pathogens undergo changes that prevent them from responding to antimicrobial treatments – is expected to worsen.

Faced with these increasingly used drugs, bacteria are in fact developing genetic defense mechanisms and this is a health problem as serious as HIV or malaria, write these researchers. They studied data from 520 million people and found that, from 1990 to 2021, more than a million people per year worldwide succumbed directly to antibiotic resistance.

In detail, the researchers looked at 22 pathogens, 84 combinations between pathogens and treatments, 11 infectious syndromes in people of all ages from 204 countries and territories.

Over the three decades, deaths of children under five directly caused by antibiotic resistance have fallen by more than 50%, as infection prevention and control have improved in infants and young children. Infections have become less common in these children, but when they do occur, they have become harder to treat. At the same time, deaths of adults aged 70 and over have jumped by more than 80% over the period, as populations have aged rapidly and older people are more vulnerable to infections.

The number of direct victims could reach 1.91 million per year worldwide by 2050, a jump of more than 67% compared to 2021, according to the researchers’ models. By the middle of this century, antibiotic resistance would play a larger role in 8.22 million deaths each year, an increase of 74.5% compared to 2021. In total, between 2025 and 2050, antibiotic resistance could directly cause more than 39 million deaths worldwide and would be associated with 169 million deaths, the scientists estimate.

Today, antibiotic resistance already causes 5,500 deaths per year in France. This study by Lancet therefore recalls that in the absence of discovering new generations of antibiotics, the only solution is to avoid the overconsumption of these drugs, both in humans and in animals.