Return of federal elected officials to Parliament | Liberal government more fragile

(Ottawa) Federal elected officials return to Parliament Hill on Monday and will find that the political landscape has changed considerably.

The last time they met in the nation’s capital, the Liberals knew their prospects were dim after languishing in the polls for more than a year, but they were confident the New Democrats would prevent them from bringing down their minority government until at least the next budget.

Several important changes have taken place during the summer and the weakened government will now function as a real minority and the country could be plunged into elections at any moment.

New Democratic Party (NDP) Leader Jagmeet Singh has torn up a political pact with the Liberal government and is already facing a challenge from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to vote in favour of a motion of non-confidence in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his ruling party.

The stakes are high for the NDP, whose electoral popularity does not appear to have improved drastically as a result of some of the legislation and programs it managed to secure from the Liberals as part of the deal, including a dental care plan and a pharmacare bill that is currently making its way through the Senate.

The new dynamic in Ottawa also opens up new possibilities for the Bloc Québécois (BQ), whose leader Yves-François Blanchet has already indicated that he is ready to do business with the Liberals in exchange for his own list of demands that benefit Quebec.

The Bloc’s provisions include the Liberals’ green light to private member’s Bill C-319, which would raise pensions for those aged 65 to 74 to the same level as those paid to those aged 75 and over.

The Liberals have meanwhile said they are avoiding the political machinations that the opposition parties are developing and are instead focusing on “delivering [la marchandise] to Canadians”.

The Liberals would probably have preferred to see their key bills passed by the House of Commons, including their pharmacare bill and the controversial Online Harms Actbut other parties could block this progress.

For his part, Mr. Singh has begun to level much harsher criticism at the prime minister and his government since he broke his deal with the Liberals, which ensured they would stay in power until June 2025. However, New Democrats have suggested that their leader is no more inclined to seek an election than Mr. Trudeau is at the moment.