A former minister and European Commissioner, this 73-year-old right-winger has a long career in politics. He has also been noted for his consensus-building skills, leading the Brexit negotiations for the European Union.
Will the Brexit negotiator be able to resolve the French political crisis? Emmanuel Macron chose to appoint Michel Barnier as Prime Minister on Thursday, September 5, after fifty-five days without a government. A former European Commissioner, this 73-year-old right-wing man inherits the difficult task of leading the country in the face of a National Assembly divided into three blocs. While the hypotheses Bernard Cazeneuve and Xavier Bertrand were still on the table the day before, it is the former candidate for the 2021 right-wing primary who was designated by the President of the Republic to form a government.
“As a political opponent of the President of the Republic, Michel Barnier has shown that he knows how to overcome partisan divisions and build unity”justifies the entourage of the head of state after the announcement of his nomination. A close friend of Emmanuel Macron still assures that the new Prime Minister meets the criterion of institutional stability set by the Elysée, namely the non-censorship of the future government by the deputies. Franceinfo explains why Michel Barnier finally imposed himself in the final straight.
Because the RN did not veto it
This is the element that probably weighed the most in the balance. By opting for a right-wing Prime Minister, Emmanuel Macron had to ensure that the National Rally, with its 126 deputies, would not immediately censure the new government. “As the PS refuses to support anyone, the Prime Minister therefore maintains that he has no censorship in the centre, the right and the extreme right”observes an executive advisor.
If Marine Le Pen had vetoed the Bernard Cazeneuve hypothesis, the president of the RN group in the Assembly had also opposed the Xavier Bertrand option, with whom relations are notoriously very cool, due to their electoral confrontation in Hauts-de-France. The president of the region, whose name has regularly been tested by the Elysée, therefore ran the risk of being immediately censored by the Assembly.
Emmanuel Macron’s entourage was therefore waiting for the reactions of the National Rally. And the far-right party did not immediately veto Michel Barnier. “It’s not at all our political line, but as we know that the Prime Minister who will come will not be at all on our political line, we have to take note of it. (…) It doesn’t sound like a dream, but I’m waiting to listen”declared the deputy Sébastien Chenu, vice-president of the National Rally, on BFMTV.
“No enthusiasm a priori. Let’s see what he proposes”also commented to franceinfo the RN deputy Julien Odoul. A few moments before the Elysée press release, the group informed franceinfo that it would wait for Michel Barnier’s general policy statement “to position oneself”. A position reiterated in a message from Jordan Bardella, the president of the far-right party, on the social network X.
The National Rally therefore leaves the door open to a Barnier government, which leaves some in the presidential camp wondering. “I don’t understand why we created an anti-RN republican front if it was to have Marine Le Pen’s blessing for Prime Minister”sighs a ministerial adviser.
Because he has no ambitions for 2027
At 73, the man who was defeated in the right-wing primary for the 2022 presidential election does not appear to be a contender for the Elysée in 2027. However, with less than three years to go and with rumors of Emmanuel Macron’s early resignation – repeatedly denied by the man himself – this fact is anything but negligible.
In his own camp first, he does not hinder the ambitions of Laurent Wauquiez, the president of the LR group in the Assembly, nor those of Xavier Bertrand, whose name has long circulated for the post of Prime Minister. Nor does he come to thwart the presidential quest of Edouard Philippe who made his candidacy official on Tuesday evening. “To appoint someone who has no ambition for himself is an assetobserves a resigning minister to France Télévisions. He has had this freedom since he missed his turn in the LR primary.”
But be careful not to rush things, warns LR MP Fabien Di Filippo. “If the country sinks, nothing will be good for any of the candidates!” assures the elected official of the right to franceinfo. And “you never know”adds political scientist Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at Ipsos, “It has a very small chance of going well, whereas without it, he would have been forgotten.”. Clearly, we must not bury, even before his arrival at Matignon, a hypothetical Barnier candidacy for the Elysée.
Because it is compatible with Emmanuel Macron
Although he has always remained a member of the Republicans, Michel Barnier has the advantage of being partly politically compatible with the head of state. The former MP does not propose repealing the pension reform, a red line for the Macronist camp, nor going back on the asylum-immigration law as the left wants. This Gaullist had also called for a vote for the outgoing president the day after Valérie Pécresse’s defeat in the first round. “I will vote for [Emmanuel Macron] without any qualms because at no time in my political commitment (…) can I identify with the theses of the extreme right”he explained in 2022 on France Inter.
Described as a “opponent” to the president by the Elysée, and despite criticism of the exercise “lonely” of the president’s power, the two men agree on several issues. First, their commitment to European construction. While Emmanuel Macron has made it a priority of his mandates, Michel Barnier has held several high-ranking positions within the EU. The two men should find common ground on economic matters. In 2021, in The DispatchMichel Barnier promised to revive the French economy and to make “work” its “priority” by reducing the burden on businesses. A promise in line with Macron’s DNA and the promise not to increase taxes during the last legislative campaign.
Because he has a long experience of political life
As France goes through an unprecedented political crisis, Michel Barnier’s political experience has weighed in the balance. A former MP and senator, he was minister four times: for the Environment between 1993 and 1995 under Edouard Balladur, for European Affairs between 1995 and 1997 under Alain Juppé and for Foreign Affairs between 2004 and 2005 under François Fillon. He then held the post of Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries between 2007 and 2009 during Nicolas Sarkozy’s term.
Michel Barnier stands out above all for his European political experience: he was European Commissioner twice, a rarity, for regional policy between 1999 and 2004, then for the internal market from 2010 to 2014. The former president of the General Council of Savoie is also best known for having been in charge of Brexit negotiations for the European Union between 2016 and 2021.
This CV as long as the arm could serve him well at Matignon. Described as “phlegmatic” by The Cross, “flexible in details” in Le Monde, and “fine negotiator” by elected officials from his camp, Michel Barnier will have to deal with a National Assembly divided into three blocs. His European experience could be useful to this man of consensus.