The master of clocks lets time slip away. Emmanuel Macron continues to “testing the hypotheses of Xavier Bertrand and Bernard Cazeneuve”confirmed the entourage of the President of the Republic to franceinfo on Tuesday, September 3. Nearly two months after the second round of early legislative elections, which resulted in an Assembly divided into three blocs, the President of the Republic has still not named Gabriel Attal’s successor at Matignon. The resigning Prime Minister continues to deal with current affairs, as October 1 approaches, the deadline for submitting the finance bill to Parliament.
“When I think that the Macronists were making fun of us because it took us two weeks to agree on a proposal for a Prime Minister”consequently mocks the communist senator Ian Brossat on X. “I consider the consultation cycle to be too long”also believes a close friend of Edouard Philippe. The head of state has, pell-mell, mentioned the “stability of the country”research “of a compromise”there “Olympic Truce” or even the “back to school” to gain a few days of respite.
But in the meantime, the issues to be dealt with are piling up at Matignon, between the worrying state of public finances, the unemployment insurance or New Caledonia files, or the bills currently being examined that have remained pending due to the dissolution, in particular the one on the end of life. So what’s the problem? Why does Emmanuel Macron need so much time to make a decision?
If he is not in a hurry, it is first of all because the Constitution gives him the means to do so. “From a legal point of view, it is perfectly constitutional, because Article 8, and this is perhaps a problem, does not set a deadline. You can have a government that deals with current affairs for a month, a year, five years…”recalls on franceinfo Benjamin Morel, constitutionalist and lecturer at the University of Paris II.
Without legal constraints, Emmanuel Macron can therefore play for time to seek solutions. “This delay is simply the mathematical consequence of the election results, with an almost ungovernable Assembly.”explains a ministerial adviser. “He is trying to find a Prime Minister who will not be censored in two months, while it is an almost impossible equation”adds a close friend of the head of state. The three major poles of the new hemicycle – the New Popular Front, the presidential camp and the National Rally – are indeed, for the moment, impervious to any coalition agreement. And none of these three blocs can reach the majority of the 289 deputies without the support of at least part of another camp.
“Politics, these days, is just knowing how to count to 289.”
A Renaissance MPto franceinfo
“The problem is not the name of the Prime Minister, but the coalitionconfirms Benjamin Morel. Currently, the New Popular Front would not last 48 hours before falling, just like an LR government allied to the presidential camp. We therefore have a blockage with these three blocs.” “This is proof that French politics, unlike our European neighbours, is a politics of fighting.”regrets a ministerial adviser. “There is a major political difficulty, with certain parties playing for their survival or personal political trajectories”whispers a close friend of the president, looking towards LR or certain socialists.
The attitude of the President of the Republic is also one of the explanations for these two months of waiting. “In his psychology, Emmanuel Macron hates being constrained and he likes to choose his timing to decideanalyzes a close friend of the president. Moreover, he is proactive. He refuses to be in the powerlessness of a cohabitation.” “He likes to keep control and when he appoints someone, he will have to let go and it will happen in Parliament”observes Benjamin Morel. The former environmentalist minister Cécile Duflot, in a series of messages on X, is worried to see the head of state looking for an untraceable profile, “a Prime Minister-chief of staff, but in opposition”in other words “an opponent, but who would obey him in all respects”.
“It’s no longer the search for a prime minister, but the hunt for a dahu and so… it could last a long time.”
Cécile Duflot, former environmentalist ministeron X
“We need a personality who has opposed the president. After two defeats that we have suffered, it seems obvious to show a form of alternation”assures a close friend of the president. “There is this desire expressed by the French to have a sense of cohabitation”interprets Prisca Thevenot, spokesperson for the resigning government. “But we also need a profile that allows us to open up without betraying what has been done for the country over the past seven years. It is an exceptional context, hence the need to take our time.”
In Benjamin Morel’s eyes, Emmanuel Macron has nevertheless taken things the wrong way: “In classic parliamentary regimes, it is not the president, head of a parliamentary group, who sets the conditions of negotiations, notably excluding LFI and the RN. It is totally dysfunctional.” He invites us to draw inspiration from the examples of Belgium or Spain, where Lucie Castets, the candidate designated by the New Popular Front, would have been initially entrusted with the task of securing the support of at least 289 deputies, before moving on to another candidate in the event of failure. “We’re letting it rot for two months before launching consultations, it can’t work.”believes the constitutionalist.
“He wants to be at the centre of the decision to show that it comes from him. However, if you want it to work, you have to show that it does not come from him.”
Benjamin Morel, constitutionalistto franceinfo
“The president has no interest in dragging this out for the sake of it. He has all the cards in hand to make up his mind in the coming days and we have no lessons to give him,” responds a resigning minister. But at the end of this shaky process, the RN risks finding itself “in the position of arbiter of elegance”deciding the fate of the new Prime Minister, continues Benjamin Morel: “As long as the Macronist and NFP blocs do not agree to make a deal together, there will be a deadlock, and the only way out will be support without participation from the RN”that is, a situation in which it does not enter the government, but does not vote to overthrow it either. The party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella has also declared itself ready to accept a technical government if it were responsible, in particular, for setting up a proportional voting system for the next legislative elections.
To embody this technical team, the name of Thierry Beaudet, president of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (CESE), had been whispered to the press on Monday, but the hypothesis moved away as the day went on. And the Xavier Bertrand and Bernard Cazeneuve leads returned to the negotiating table at the Elysée. “There is an interest in staging these consultations, it is to force everyone to take a position, notably the RN“, explains a Renaissance MP. But by waiting too long, Emmanuel Macron also runs the risk of worsening the political crisis. “With the Olympic period and the holidays, the French have been quite indifferent until now, recognizes the same parliamentarian. But now they still want things to move forward.”